TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,455,198
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,419,583

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,455,198 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 784 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44c1…ebc1backed No0c286,045$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.216035%21 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44b7…2e99backed No0c104,817$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.5350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed No1c103,002$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.342147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked No0c44,000$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1562524%6 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No26c39,431$10,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,339.93026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No0c39,312$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No1c38,245$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.495111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked No3c30,814$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.93728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-58.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c30,485$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed No7c28,437$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,961.832646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ce4…fbd1backed No2c28,381$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+721.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No20c28,224$5,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,538.2415150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No0c27,819$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.82825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Yes74c25,579$18,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,714.565350.9%27 W · 26 L+7.6wins+0.14per pick37cpaid+18.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xff4b…6555backed No0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No16c24,950$4,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,020.58378.1%3 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-86.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No19c22,000$4,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,081.991735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No7c18,980$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.682128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No14c17,707$2,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,419.3414729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c0e…434ebacked No17c17,511$2,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,905.61922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-70.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5a7…a1c7backed No1c16,442$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2dc…49f9backed Yes76c15,024$11,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,677.481172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed No6c14,674$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.712114.3%3 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-76%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No17c13,915$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,389.51966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+121%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked No7c13,719$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.23920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No1c12,771$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5260%0 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d65…3781backed No2c12,500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.883138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf22e…18f2backed No0c12,269$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No8c12,243$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.8113625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked No10c12,221$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.86520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-75%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x997d…5d15backed No24c11,692$2,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,836.76425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No19c11,436$2,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,168.1910245.1%46 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No12c11,170$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,380.649035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed No12c10,684$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.51030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-58.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes58c10,505$6,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,44811522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cd…02cdbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked No27c9,965$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.521070%7 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick41cpaid+68.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes78c9,662$7,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,135.623145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6998…9ff2backed Yes72c9,509$6,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,634.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No15c9,438$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.852520%5 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-67.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2e…1b55backed No0c9,167$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed Yes78c8,716$6,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,927.516355.6%35 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes78c8,545$6,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.3834333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No19c8,340$1,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,601.1210740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9225…9a5bbacked No5c7,775$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb75…02eabacked No0c7,773$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb799…06a1backed No2c7,649$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b13…f125backed No1c7,633$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.831030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed No1c7,196$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.72714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No12c7,072$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.1813143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes79c7,000$5,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,460850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6404…f250backed Yes76c6,838$5,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.631040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed No20c6,018$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.5680%0 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked No0c5,993$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No5c5,751$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.674533.3%15 W · 30 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+43.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked No23c5,627$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.191650%8 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No2c5,519$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2710947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No21c5,299$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.142227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7072…69acbacked No1c5,147$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No38c5,052$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.547639.5%30 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a8b…92c9backed Yes77c5,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a2…9524backed No0c4,773$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb97…eee8backed No33c4,637$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.795547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No1c4,525$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.652114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked No1c4,361$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.44140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x856f…e1d7backed No19c4,295$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.05922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-56.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No2c4,244$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.952941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd32c…a4c2backed No14c4,240$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.72837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-48.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes70c4,200$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.9931434.1%107 W · 207 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5e2…c1a7backed Yes68c3,800$2,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No14c3,800$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52024433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe9e…6944backed Yes55c3,730$2,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.484544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4173…1eecbacked No15c3,653$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked No6c3,649$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.143132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No4c3,603$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6914356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No21c3,439$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.978541.2%35 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x111f…af00backed No32c3,387$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.02825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-51.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes69c3,353$2,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.121376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No28c3,297$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.824835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes42c3,255$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.332263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No5c3,072$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.05160%0 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1ed…e774backed Yes67c3,023$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe32b…626ebacked No22c3,009$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.132025%5 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes65c2,905$1,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.075738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92e5…efeebacked No5c2,746$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.782630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes64c2,700$1,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.991283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+37.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc60…b320backed No2c2,647$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No14c2,485$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.676141%25 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No26c2,356$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.660%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No36c2,332$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.425547.3%26 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x034f…f8b4backed Yes77c2,309$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.992516%4 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-73.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes40c2,168$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.42050%10 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No16c2,156$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.354940.8%20 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd07…ce86backed Yes76c2,140$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.65100%5 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No24c2,120$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.418234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf525…559dbacked No1c2,033$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8403250%16 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cab…f7c2backed No35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No24c1,995$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.83237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes77c1,967$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.041050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+75.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.