TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,844
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,391

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,844 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d3c…d294backed Over65c3,990$2,587 inWon+$1,403.451,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x822b…61fdbacked Under36c2,029$730 inLost-$7303464.7%22 W · 12 L+8.5wins+0.25per pick40cpaid+60.8%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Under35c1,424$498 inLost-$498.334470.5%31 W · 13 L+10.8wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+67.2%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x6f83…3af9backed Under58c668.1$387 inLost-$386.831968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+33.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under65c471$306 inLost-$306.152,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ac…a948backed Under58c461.77$268 inLost-$267.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd1…553dbacked Under58c329.76$191 inLost-$191.261752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0ca…35f7backed Under34c294.12$100 inLost-$1002470.8%17 W · 7 L+6.6wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+65.7%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xe11f…81cebacked Under65c289.11$188 inLost-$187.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+81.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43e3…43f7backed Under64c175.56$112 inLost-$112.3623230.2%70 W · 162 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over35c173.06$61 inWon+$112.428,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d5…7344backed Over74c134.63$100 inWon+$34.638439.3%33 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd6…d4a0backed Under35c100$35 inLost-$354247.6%20 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Over41c99.99$41 inWon+$592,57646.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L+35.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Over44c96.93$43 inWon+$54.4180225.7%206 W · 596 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under62c50$31 inLost-$313,73151.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L+55.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee8…9197backed Under56c44.28$25 inLost-$24.811745.3%53 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over35c37.25$13 inWon+$24.212,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Under65c25$16 inLost-$16.252,23149.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L-21.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Over65c16.94$11 inWon+$5.932,79656.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L-9.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.