Fifa International · resolved market
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc416bb5417ec929caeb2f13bd73de0e904a2af2220df6e6ab71051bd5e8f253f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 26c | 15,861$4,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,114.02 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 12c | 9,963$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.3 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 72c | 4,612$3,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.78 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 24c | 4,033$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.77 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 78c | 3,466$2,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.88 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 22c | 3,115$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.64 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7e…6d00backed Over | 20c | 2,479$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 72c | 1,901$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.21 | 778 | 45%350 W · 428 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Under | 71c | 1,500$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 166 | 33.7%56 W · 110 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 659 | 48.6%320 W · 339 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…6bfebacked Over | 22c | 1,164$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.16 | 208 | 44.7%93 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 77c | 1,148$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.58 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…6afdbacked Under | 35c | 900$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…6e4ebacked Under | 79c | 878$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.09 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Under | 78c | 808.99$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.98 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 73c | 798.09$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.31 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Under | 79c | 573.42$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.42 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 17c | 528.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…41cabacked Over | 23c | 513.62$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.97 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Under | 76c | 512.16$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.92 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…97c2backed Under | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over | 15c | 496.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 20c | 486.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.95 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Over | 65c | 450$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.5 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -16.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Over | 65c | 450$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.5 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -16.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…5ea3backed Over | 23c | 431.17$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b9…f378backed Over | 24c | 427.96$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.61 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Over | 25c | 417.86$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.22 | 198 | 38.4%76 W · 122 L | -18.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd0…9192backed Over | 21c | 386.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 76c | 346.04$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Over | 22c | 338.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 265 | 37.7%100 W · 165 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 74c | 337$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.62 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 77c | 317.04$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…d698backed Over | 23c | 304.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…6097backed Over | 14c | 302.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…e497backed Over | 9c | 258.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…48cabacked Under | 75c | 254.38$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Under | 78c | 236.29$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…65b9backed Over | 11c | 227.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…a213backed Over | 20c | 208.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 9c | 200.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 454 | 21.4%97 W · 357 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…eccfbacked Over | 10c | 199.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4372…6a96backed Over | 23c | 199.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 269 | 21.6%58 W · 211 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…431abacked Over | 15c | 160.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7a…751abacked Under | 78c | 145.13$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 732 | 34.6%253 W · 479 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 22c | 142.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 2,271 | 39.5%896 W · 1,375 L | +10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…c02cbacked Over | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 13c | 130.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…2eabbacked Over | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d54…6022backed Under | 75c | 124.92$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 128 | 71.9%92 W · 36 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 24c | 122.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…c65abacked Over | 23c | 120.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 74c | 112.22$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1606…9a7cbacked Over | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a7…b778backed Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 72c | 92.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a02…8773backed Under | 80c | 90.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ffbebacked Over | 15c | 87.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 594 | 53.4%317 W · 277 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03bf…86bcbacked Over | 22c | 77.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 77c | 74.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 481 | 52.4%252 W · 229 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 467 | 43.3%202 W · 265 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7906…ad0ebacked Under | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…6cc3backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Under | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Under | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 275 | 54.5%150 W · 125 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…900ebacked Under | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)United States won
- Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)United States won
- Spread: United States (-1.5)United States won
- Spread: United States (-2.5)United States won
- United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfYes won
- United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5Under won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5Under won
- United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: United States 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.