Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a7519507686bb9658c7b8cba7ebcec5889445d1ba38b6d06f7fa2eb4e051f12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AS Romaof AS Roma, Bologna FC 1909
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5a…87efbacked AS Roma | 22c | 2,166$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.76 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Bologna FC 1909 | 25c | 934.04$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.73 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AS Roma | 55c | 890.45$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.2 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed AS Roma | 58c | 502.28$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.75 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed AS Roma | 65c | 162.86$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Bologna FC 1909 | 18c | 157.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 162 | 19.1%31 W · 131 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 21c | 123.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed AS Roma | 38c | 101.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3960…0975backed AS Roma | 21c | 99.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bologna FC 1909 | 78c | 42.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Bologna FC 1909 | 75c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Bologna FC 1909 | 79c | 30.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed AS Roma | 80c | 17.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked AS Roma | 80c | 17.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 141 | 59.6%84 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed AS Roma | 68c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Bologna FC 1909 | 80c | 15.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…03b7backed Bologna FC 1909 | 79c | 15.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Bologna FC 1909 | 79c | 14.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 115 | 47.8%55 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.