Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb169c4f76f185e04d9200a7663abfbdcb40a679ef683753419bb46c7005ffb43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 17c | 3,703$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.43 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 1c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 12c | 773.7$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 71c | 500.07$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.02 | 419 | 54.7%229 W · 190 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Under | 29c | 478.7$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.82 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 28c | 449.64$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.9 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Under | 28c | 434.57$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.68 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Under | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 147 | 48.3%71 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 72c | 294.96$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.59 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…b2a6backed Over | 70c | 258.71$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Over | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca0d…2602backed Over | 72c | 232.14$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 28c | 230.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Over | 72c | 218.49$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 102 | 59.8%61 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Over | 72c | 196.64$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked Over | 72c | 178.53$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 25c | 177.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 28c | 168.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 30c | 159.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 71c | 157.83$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 328 | 54.3%178 W · 150 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 70c | 98.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 72c | 68.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Over | 72c | 50.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 28c | 45.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 274 | 53.3%146 W · 128 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 28c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 77c | 42.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x677c…6b53backed Over | 72c | 40.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…e7c2backed Over | 72c | 34.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 72c | 34.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 179 | 58.7%105 W · 74 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 76c | 29.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked Over | 72c | 29.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Over | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 31 | 80.6%25 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…0f52backed Over | 72c | 21.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 72c | 20.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -24%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 72c | 17.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8e…3289backed Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.