Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9b18f774fb5fabf9992102595a23aa0fbb8103296349ff74be3894ac3cd144b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 1,317$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.09 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…93acbacked Over | 25c | 1,146$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.5 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba9…3455backed Over | 42c | 1,126$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4920…2ef4backed Under | 66c | 890.94$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.2 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…a96fbacked Under | 61c | 800$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 401.73$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.58 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 31c | 347.42$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 280.4$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 72c | 273.11$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +9.4wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Over | 18c | 248.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…916ebacked Over | 42c | 229.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 70c | 188.19$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 29c | 178.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 62c | 133.44$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 21c | 103.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 147 | 48.3%71 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881e…70f8backed Under | 79c | 99.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 27c | 83.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 30c | 79.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 319 | 58.3%186 W · 133 L | +26.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 37c | 77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 345 | 53.9%186 W · 159 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 73c | 72.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 141 | 59.6%84 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 73c | 72.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f3…5c66backed Over | 35c | 68.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 73c | 67.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 38c | 61.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04b…d0bfbacked Under | 79c | 59.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 22c | 52.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 27c | 48.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…317ebacked Under | 71c | 41.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 35c | 38.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…d68abacked Under | 78c | 37.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 72c | 36.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Under | 76c | 24.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 326 | 50.6%165 W · 161 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…3418backed Under | 77c | 23.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 498 | 50.6%252 W · 246 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 77c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47cc…6aa7backed Under | 79c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)AS Roma won
- Spread: AS Roma (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.