TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$266,587
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$264,448

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,587 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 460 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd67b…5780backed Yes67c8,646$5,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,821.338247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf90…41f0backed Yes63c7,924$4,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,959.0815740.1%63 W · 94 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+87.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked No6c5,605$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.325518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2fad…f5c0backed Yes49c5,131$2,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,632.543661.1%22 W · 14 L+9.1wins+0.25per pick36cpaid+51.7%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x8ef8…2c75backed No23c4,946$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-64.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28aa…8f75backed No31c4,891$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes76c4,665$3,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.0635347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No28c4,297$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.6864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked No43c4,237$1,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,825.9917929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked Yes48c3,942$1,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,053.54143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb962…055ebacked Yes75c3,654$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.36666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+44.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c86…b302backed No9c3,268$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fa…aeecbacked Yes65c3,000$1,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.763917.9%7 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3532…663abacked No4c3,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+129.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No10c2,983$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.1935921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc894…7cccbacked No20c2,830$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.79825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+178.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec20…7c9bbacked No20c2,692$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.421637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92cd…9740backed No43c2,662$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.172638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick26cpaid+53.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed No6c2,608$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.934520%9 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid+91.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd76a…79acbacked No12c2,604$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3153125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed71…97c4backed No29c2,491$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.68862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd416…d9e2backed Yes79c2,378$1,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.714663%29 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+63.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89ce…2edfbacked No51c2,277$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1601136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes59c2,171$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881.158145.7%37 W · 44 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3ad…6866backed No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No34c2,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.4226429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes63c1,817$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.547334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf5…e2f2backed No28c1,797$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No6c1,760$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.341039.7%10 W · 93 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8d…778dbacked No28c1,716$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.421855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72cb…93e9backed No28c1,710$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc741…87bfbacked Yes49c1,644$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.78616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-65.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No6c1,643$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.743717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes68c1,623$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.4440939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No31c1,603$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49324759.1%146 W · 101 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No26c1,602$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.05779.1%7 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda63…4378backed No33c1,566$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5101020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-61.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked No54c1,566$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.479139.6%36 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x183d…caabbacked No11c1,412$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+54.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfae…9dedbacked No8c1,276$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102205%1 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+108.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a6a…b1ebbacked No8c1,218$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No7c1,200$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9842311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12a2…0e71backed No43c1,175$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002556%14 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d7c…93b2backed No30c1,123$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.993452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+27.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f62…efddbacked No9c1,074$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9906…c0aebacked No24c1,067$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.745829.3%17 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed No17c1,063$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.6410333%34 W · 69 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No7c1,056$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.54195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa659…02e0backed No16c1,042$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.7333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed Yes71c1,037$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.0418246.2%84 W · 98 L-15.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes75c1,016$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.3210041%41 W · 59 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x578d…3306backed No9c983.75$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+71.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc48…04edbacked No31c974.02$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004831.3%15 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8eb…8473backed No37c972.09$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.522128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+196.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb39f…1143backed No18c969.09$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b5…4c72backed No40c925.85$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.937243.1%31 W · 41 L+10.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No35c914.95$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.748750.6%44 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked Yes73c907.47$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.1616131.7%51 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No7c900$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes71c900$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26120247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes69c899.99$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28310141.6%42 W · 59 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0bc…7c8cbacked No11c896.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddef…d52bbacked No20c873.14$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.242213.6%3 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-78.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed No24c869.29$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.5828438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes75c850$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.515943.4%69 W · 90 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f2f…b226backed Yes78c839.68$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.956653%35 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x654a…cc32backed Yes64c827$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.523158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e4…9b0dbacked No17c821.72$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.628144.4%36 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd47…805abacked Yes75c815.35$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.353666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b6d…5453backed Yes69c767.96$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.465139.2%20 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed No45c755.81$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.17741.6%32 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes79c755.29$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.7716961.5%104 W · 65 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5979…7fbdbacked No38c754.17$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.911776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick54cpaid+49.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed No52c750$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3907356.2%41 W · 32 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef5f…e090backed No41c713.19$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2926041.7%25 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa20a…d92dbacked Yes78c711.07$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.523548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3333…6d86backed Yes63c709.71$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.395759.6%34 W · 23 L+7.4wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x56bf…5c19backed No40c689.86$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2764537.8%17 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97a6…2190backed No37c682.71$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2507544%33 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+48.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed Yes75c666.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.675450%27 W · 27 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+43.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0eb9…bb3cbacked No34c663.02$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.96933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+88.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes56c654.6$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.621631.9%69 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42d9…00c4backed No36c649.74$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.81560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes61c638.27$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.9116648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf01…c782backed No6c634.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.45244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f57…6276backed No9c629.18$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.73666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+149.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb15…1038backed No33c622.91$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No26c611.34$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.8325843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56f3…6513backed No33c608.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3af2…5212backed Yes75c602.32$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6e8…b293backed No39c583.67$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2302227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No31c566.79$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.2415347.1%72 W · 81 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…9402backed No21c561.62$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.224216.7%7 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fed…f6a5backed No32c560.99$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes62c558.19$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.9533337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe1f…c113backed No36c552.08$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002540%10 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7b5…c88fbacked No29c537.83$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b3c…2688backed No27c529.22$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.85121.6%11 W · 40 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-12.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb22a…a80dbacked Yes65c522.73$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.851931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-50.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed No13c518.54$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.67850%4 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+247.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.