TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfe1f…c113

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 57 out of 100; worst NHL at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2540%10 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+115.4%+$115.44
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$198
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+46.7%+$177.36
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+138.4%+$138.38
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$267.43
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.15
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.33
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.2
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+68.8%+$34.03
Internet Access restored in Iran by March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10.6
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+309.9%+$763.63
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$347Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$346.5
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,832Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,832.37
Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$217.36
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+72.4%+$63
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+714.5%+$791.19
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$494Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+346.8%+$1,712.4
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 25 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.98
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.56
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 2 France?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advancebacked Senegal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$464Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$463.79
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$790Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$758.74
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$57.56
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Austria to score first vs. Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Spain (-5.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.27
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$113.33
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.66
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$106.25
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+107.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finlandbacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
All 4 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions Leaguelast resolved Aug 11, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+354.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva win on 2026-08-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$445
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)backed Manchester City FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+25%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manasbacked Manoj Dhamne Manas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkietabacked Tomasz Berkieta · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$37.01
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will MH Hapoel Tel Aviv win on 2026-08-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.75
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.