Middle East · resolved market
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0008c221e7c6144fc68b08c1c02772772dca41f77a25a56f3acd5688ec450d98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $505,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $425,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $505,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 6c | 18,345$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.99 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 5c | 16,290$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.32 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…112abacked Yes | 3c | 15,952$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 9c | 13,663$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.12 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…6b34backed Yes | 7c | 10,372$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 6c | 9,430$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.4 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…dbbbbacked Yes | 10c | 9,428$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.51 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 6c | 7,948$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.6 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…8c1bbacked Yes | 26c | 7,641$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.73 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f72…a0e9backed Yes | 6c | 6,450$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.63 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1d…5265backed Yes | 17c | 6,164$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 5,331$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.74 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf532…c50cbacked Yes | 8c | 4,922$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.3 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 6c | 4,894$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.82 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe24…cc8bbacked Yes | 10c | 4,484$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.41 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb521…18f6backed Yes | 6c | 4,226$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafdf…a1d5backed Yes | 13c | 4,134$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.81 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,000$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.5 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 3,590$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.96 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 11c | 3,588$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.56 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x577f…07ebbacked Yes | 14c | 3,390$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.25 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 7c | 2,938$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.57 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 2,845$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.06 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 79c | 2,609$2,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.9 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 15c | 2,552$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.17 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 79c | 2,398$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.41 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…7d90backed Yes | 14c | 2,385$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 1c | 2,343$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 8c | 2,290$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.11 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,252$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.54 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…c53abacked Yes | 10c | 2,141$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.82 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…677fbacked Yes | 15c | 2,133$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.68 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ee…da09backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,977$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc64b…516dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,972$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…7badbacked Yes | 19c | 1,960$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16eb…8b06backed Yes | 5c | 1,945$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 1,903$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.88 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 9c | 1,819$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.59 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,812$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.68 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…9098backed Yes | 10c | 1,810$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcddc…217cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,772$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 7c | 1,715$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…c3a4backed Yes | 1c | 1,657$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…8226backed Yes | 19c | 1,620$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…e106backed Yes | 6c | 1,608$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a70…9b20backed Yes | 14c | 1,587$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 1,491$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb2…cee7backed Yes | 7c | 1,485$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…8621backed Yes | 7c | 1,473$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…840fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,459$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 13c | 1,447$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.55 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b1…3ef7backed Yes | 14c | 1,390$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.87 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,350$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a2…183fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,312$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.83 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5efe…7c87backed Yes | 11c | 1,301$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.48 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,293$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,261$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…2aa9backed Yes | 11c | 1,209$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.76 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 11c | 1,200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 13c | 1,192$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…70b4backed Yes | 14c | 1,190$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 72c | 1,183$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.17 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…de3bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,164$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…2c4ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,138$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x838d…3cbdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,126$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…e90fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,100$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 5c | 1,096$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…7531backed Yes | 9c | 1,062$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…05eabacked Yes | 19c | 1,040$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…0035backed Yes | 15c | 1,026$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.51 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a14…045cbacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca8…625ebacked Yes | 5c | 964.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…2af0backed Yes | 11c | 950$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 9c | 944.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd049…5de7backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…e48fbacked Yes | 4c | 897.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…7112backed Yes | 15c | 896.34$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.64 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…3b0fbacked Yes | 19c | 855.04$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.56 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…b621backed Yes | 7c | 819.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed Yes | 12c | 808.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…0ef5backed Yes | 6c | 805.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +164.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7806…ae3fbacked Yes | 10c | 799.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +6.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…3d91backed Yes | 13c | 782.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 726.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…d988backed Yes | 10c | 712.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…1475backed Yes | 15c | 683.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +583.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…0bc0backed Yes | 8c | 645.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a5…ef2ebacked Yes | 10c | 631.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff9…795abacked Yes | 9c | 595.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 6c | 595.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5653…7334backed Yes | 17c | 580.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 13c | 553.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?this page
- Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will France strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UK strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.