Middle East · resolved market
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x101b7888bf1b299591d674e5f0a29c6444bab247c950a51fc15b7ab38d02529e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $345,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $286,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 14,049$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.74 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 3c | 10,361$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.83 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 3c | 8,732$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,052$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.08 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 2c | 7,773$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed23…96b0backed Yes | 1c | 7,687$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf54…48ecbacked Yes | 1c | 7,687$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad9…861cbacked Yes | 2c | 7,148$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.81 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,969$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.63 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,430$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x220d…f4e9backed Yes | 5c | 5,242$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 2c | 5,158$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.48 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4206…6d13backed Yes | 2c | 4,895$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 4,602$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…04bdbacked Yes | 4c | 4,206$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…e708backed Yes | 3c | 3,567$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 3c | 3,548$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,115$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f5…967fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,030$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes | 2c | 2,942$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64b…516dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,855$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc747…de65backed Yes | 2c | 2,830$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f9…9158backed Yes | 2c | 2,798$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…68dbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,460$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 2c | 2,054$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbf…b0eebacked Yes | 3c | 2,029$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…37ebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,636$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…b68dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,614$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,541$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,443$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,380$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…820fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,343$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 1,305$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,285$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…819cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,253$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae2…f01abacked Yes | 3c | 1,215$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 1,119$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 2c | 1,089$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,021$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 3c | 922$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1921…a4bdbacked Yes | 4c | 890$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…572cbacked Yes | 3c | 865.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 2c | 835.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 3c | 811.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 1c | 751.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4915…bef1backed Yes | 1c | 677.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…fb86backed Yes | 3c | 655.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8baa…d5e0backed Yes | 4c | 645.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…cd02backed Yes | 2c | 636.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.24per pick | 35cpaid | +150.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 3c | 630.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…2930backed Yes | 2c | 629.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 26cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb1…802ebacked Yes | 8c | 627.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ee…da09backed Yes | 2c | 600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…ec95backed Yes | 4c | 576.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 3c | 564$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9104…61a9backed Yes | 2c | 555.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…be7ebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Yes | 3c | 448.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde6e…2f5fbacked Yes | 3c | 431.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3a…fe9bbacked Yes | 3c | 428.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…86b5backed Yes | 3c | 414.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…ecdabacked Yes | 3c | 346.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa165…846cbacked Yes | 3c | 323.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…7084backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?this page
- Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will France strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UK strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.