Middle East · resolved market
Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc69e8fadae22b362049f1c9ae6768ccf05ca92c3efe0b3f908773b7de6372738
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf079…c788backed Yes | 1c | 15,200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…6b34backed Yes | 5c | 7,096$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 6,924$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.07 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 5,984$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.38 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,814$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…45d4backed Yes | 3c | 2,954$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…e48fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,365$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,972$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 2c | 1,479$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,433$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,244$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,039$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…30d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,016$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093e…979bbacked Yes | 9c | 996.32$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 975.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbe…7bfbbacked Yes | 2c | 905.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 2c | 896.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee4…3337backed Yes | 3c | 869.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…f8b3backed Yes | 2c | 846.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 2c | 765.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 2c | 690.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Yes | 2c | 626.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e7…a322backed Yes | 12c | 603.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 2c | 518.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x801f…0342backed Yes | 2c | 508.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b1…3428backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 431.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702a…3ff8backed Yes | 4c | 427.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 416.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…ad22backed Yes | 12c | 402.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 332.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…9f17backed Yes | 6c | 325.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 323.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8e…3c57backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 285.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…306cbacked Yes | 4c | 283.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…8e63backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 31.3%36 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa317…b797backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae2…2a80backed Yes | 6c | 180$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…555abacked Yes | 11c | 171$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 7c | 151.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 74c | 151.02$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…60f2backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 60c | 39.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x960f…5709backed Yes | 42c | 25.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?this page
- Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will France strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UK strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.