Middle East · resolved market
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22fe0f993bb899d3ae33bbdfbeb7f7d06df0982f578ae26592b55cf581396376
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,020,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,029,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,020,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 904 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 39c | 30,900$12,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,759.87 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…ad91backed No | 56c | 21,703$12,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,559.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 43c | 20,050$8,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,422.51 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…112abacked Yes | 19c | 18,465$3,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,565.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 12c | 17,794$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.93 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…debcbacked Yes | 1c | 15,200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 47c | 14,109$6,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,436.39 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 25c | 13,809$3,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,316.11 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…c3a4backed Yes | 5c | 13,408$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…88dfbacked Yes | 68c | 13,396$9,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,159.06 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d1…a4fbbacked Yes | 74c | 13,229$9,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,781.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…e48fbacked Yes | 6c | 12,590$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.75 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…f5c0backed No | 32c | 12,091$3,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,201.96 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +9.1wins | +0.25per pick | 36cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…00c8backed No | 45c | 11,872$5,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,575.87 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 51c | 10,718$5,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200.11 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…45d4backed Yes | 19c | 9,370$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b33…9a34backed Yes | 68c | 9,349$6,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,354 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 51c | 8,990$4,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,365.86 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 11c | 8,897$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 49c | 8,458$4,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,160.22 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 71c | 8,130$5,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,336.78 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabdb…73dabacked Yes | 26c | 7,861$2,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.95 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +99%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 35c | 7,619$2,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,986.27 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…4372backed No | 71c | 7,174$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,073.61 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 29c | 5,841$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,682.54 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1354…ad04backed Yes | 35c | 5,669$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…2b42backed Yes | 32c | 5,295$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Yes | 78c | 5,260$4,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,086 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b67…b1debacked Yes | 16c | 5,253$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 26c | 5,113$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,805.52 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 71c | 5,072$3,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,606.62 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed Yes | 39c | 5,056$1,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,987.2 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 38c | 5,052$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,112.59 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…aa14backed No | 68c | 4,732$3,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.98 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed Yes | 10c | 4,475$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.63 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 27c | 4,420$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,214.9 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9b7bbacked No | 30c | 4,370$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,055.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 52c | 4,293$2,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,077.02 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…0fc7backed No | 58c | 4,047$2,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.4 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…4393backed Yes | 79c | 3,961$3,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,143.38 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 38c | 3,697$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.29 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 18c | 3,680$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.74 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 70c | 3,649$2,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,570.92 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…502dbacked Yes | 73c | 3,579$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 36c | 3,494$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,221.15 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878f…1755backed Yes | 42c | 3,461$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.3 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 45c | 3,345$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.25 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8f…8fd8backed No | 57c | 3,272$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,392.08 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 3,261$2,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.68 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 37c | 3,252$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.1 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 46c | 3,221$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.98 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 20c | 3,151$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.55 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…74f7backed No | 79c | 3,114$2,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.01 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…8339backed Yes | 54c | 3,105$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.24 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 65c | 3,080$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.99 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -10.5wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 3,041$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.13 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5b…bafcbacked Yes | 19c | 3,038$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…5e2abacked Yes | 70c | 3,019$2,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,114.94 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…a746backed Yes | 79c | 3,000$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 33c | 3,000$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.91 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 77c | 2,997$2,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.52 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 64c | 2,992$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.97 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 51c | 2,973$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,458.86 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…0b2cbacked No | 70c | 2,857$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.23 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…22e4backed No | 29c | 2,670$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,887.67 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…745ebacked No | 38c | 2,531$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.24 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed No | 20c | 2,500$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,005 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 79c | 2,500$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.99 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 36c | 2,399$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.43 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 42c | 2,306$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.08 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…1b2dbacked No | 44c | 2,276$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,211$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.46 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf96…3263backed Yes | 50c | 2,150$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca8…625ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,141$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 14c | 2,081$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.58 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 2,079$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806.41 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed No | 41c | 2,042$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.42 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 65c | 2,035$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.43 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 48c | 2,016$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.3 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed No | 66c | 2,003$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.81 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.99 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked No | 46c | 1,960$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.18 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154d…99f9backed No | 62c | 1,930$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…57e9backed Yes | 61c | 1,923$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,885$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38b6…a5e9backed No | 64c | 1,831$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.73 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed No | 57c | 1,826$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.13 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe135…ad5bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,825$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Yes | 34c | 1,767$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,760$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 20c | 1,760$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.76 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 38c | 1,727$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.23 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 58c | 1,713$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.82 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed No | 41c | 1,677$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +64%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 65c | 1,649$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.8 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 5c | 1,643$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,638$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c3…5152backed Yes | 63c | 1,600$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…a663backed Yes | 33c | 1,598$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.95 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?this page
- Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will France strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UK strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.