Middle East · resolved market
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x101d521eea2a04b8bf2c865facd18dcdfd8c7751a759ca622e512bbdb3896610
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $976,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $874,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $976,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 567 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb4c…6cb0backed Yes | 18c | 30,312$5,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,332.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 7c | 25,284$1,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,808.45 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 19c | 22,703$4,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,214.65 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 10c | 20,209$2,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,067.71 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 12c | 19,919$2,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,318.53 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 13c | 14,265$1,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.79 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 16c | 12,683$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…433abacked Yes | 18c | 10,919$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…112abacked Yes | 20c | 10,791$2,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,107.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b67…b1debacked Yes | 20c | 9,840$1,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 9,250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…2b42backed Yes | 16c | 9,192$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 80c | 9,086$7,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,835.96 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…224ebacked Yes | 21c | 8,322$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca8…625ebacked Yes | 19c | 7,702$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…e48fbacked Yes | 20c | 7,645$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 23c | 7,348$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 77c | 6,923$5,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,579.6 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x311b…e742backed Yes | 18c | 6,800$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5b…bafcbacked Yes | 21c | 6,420$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 19c | 6,044$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.09 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…47e6backed No | 75c | 6,006$4,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.19 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 2c | 5,896$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…15f9backed Yes | 3c | 5,869$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…0be9backed Yes | 21c | 5,605$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 16c | 5,595$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.74 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 17c | 5,464$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.83 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 22c | 5,413$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.9 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe63e…525abacked Yes | 4c | 5,234$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…43c8backed Yes | 8c | 5,165$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.57 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 80c | 5,070$4,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.53 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 13c | 5,023$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.43 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 80c | 5,000$3,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.71 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…5fdfbacked No | 77c | 4,677$3,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.07 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x730d…d448backed No | 80c | 4,624$3,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 4,465$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.61 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 17c | 4,413$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.54 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,374$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…c444backed Yes | 18c | 4,301$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.19 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 4,224$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.18 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 28c | 4,053$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.26 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 5c | 3,894$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.1 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +191.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…5493backed Yes | 8c | 3,782$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…2aa9backed Yes | 4c | 3,744$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.75 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 80c | 3,537$2,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.61 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 79c | 3,520$2,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.71 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…62e9backed Yes | 4c | 3,425$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5265…0fb6backed Yes | 41c | 3,419$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked No | 77c | 3,409$2,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.24 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,373$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…cd14backed Yes | 34c | 3,355$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.26 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 65c | 3,290$2,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.47 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 6c | 3,168$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.4 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…39dbbacked Yes | 29c | 3,097$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.58 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafdf…a1d5backed Yes | 20c | 3,076$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa88a…3e8cbacked Yes | 12c | 3,047$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.15 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6432…8616backed No | 75c | 3,012$2,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.92 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 78c | 3,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.99 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,979$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 15c | 2,808$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.26 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 19c | 2,800$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 18c | 2,799$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,743$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,700$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3433…aa9ebacked Yes | 19c | 2,586$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,576$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 77c | 2,570$1,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.97 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…f0b0backed Yes | 7c | 2,526$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 79c | 2,500$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a2…183fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,369$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.45 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b2…df90backed Yes | 17c | 2,301$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 75c | 2,281$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.42 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 16c | 2,241$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.56 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 11c | 2,050$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.48 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…8958backed Yes | 29c | 2,048$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 28c | 2,028$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.23 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…9fa9backed Yes | 2c | 2,027$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,010$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.19 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…3ef9backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,923$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.16 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 1,912$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 19c | 1,899$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.92 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked No | 75c | 1,883$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.63 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 79c | 1,857$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.66 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…9530backed Yes | 28c | 1,789$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.18 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 74c | 1,781$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.36 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 7c | 1,768$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5078…00e9backed Yes | 29c | 1,750$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,743$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 19c | 1,700$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf532…c50cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,693$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.43 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c7…a06fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,684$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…9e90backed No | 80c | 1,683$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.3 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469e…a2a2backed Yes | 6c | 1,649$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c01…d612backed No | 74c | 1,629$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…78ddbacked Yes | 2c | 1,581$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 8c | 1,568$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.2 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 3c | 1,550$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 11c | 1,537$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.53 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,500$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.1 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will UK strike Iran by March 31?this page
- Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will France strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.