Middle East · resolved market
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ae2262eda6de370ef906870a76bbaeb3e1e0fc579ccb2c21cce5bc9f5449d2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $434,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $420,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $434,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 335 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0ed…109dbacked Yes | 7c | 12,508$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23eb…48d8backed Yes | 5c | 11,811$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…112abacked Yes | 28c | 8,479$2,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,401 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 10c | 7,460$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.35 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,501$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07f…7f58backed Yes | 63c | 6,425$4,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,079.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 12c | 6,240$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.5 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…21ebbacked Yes | 7c | 6,234$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -96.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 79c | 6,056$4,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.88 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 5c | 6,053$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.49 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed Yes | 6c | 5,651$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.74 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…001ebacked Yes | 17c | 5,527$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 72c | 4,747$3,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.77 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca8…625ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,597$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 4,363$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.54 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,530$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.44 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 3,496$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.69 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…7d90backed Yes | 8c | 3,491$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc026…8e5cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,317$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…de75backed Yes | 17c | 2,950$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.66 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,938$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.17 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…39dbbacked Yes | 27c | 2,799$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.39 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 2,656$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes | 17c | 2,538$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.17 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 15c | 2,500$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.14 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 77c | 2,378$1,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.69 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e6…8197backed Yes | 12c | 2,335$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…224ebacked Yes | 22c | 2,322$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,309$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 2,206$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.58 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16eb…8b06backed Yes | 20c | 2,206$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb128…cf58backed No | 80c | 2,200$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…2b42backed Yes | 12c | 2,184$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.54 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…57afbacked Yes | 22c | 2,130$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.9 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 71c | 1,981$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.38 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd624…a0f8backed Yes | 38c | 1,956$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 72c | 1,876$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.63 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,824$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,785$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 12c | 1,690$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.3 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 6c | 1,678$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,673$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.04 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 18c | 1,567$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.27 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…c53abacked Yes | 18c | 1,514$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.91 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,504$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b1…3ef7backed Yes | 36c | 1,470$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2432…3ef5backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca5…140dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,420$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.46 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 19c | 1,392$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.9 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes | 18c | 1,358$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.58 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…d7c5backed No | 79c | 1,346$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 76c | 1,221$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.84 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 2c | 1,204$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5b…bafcbacked Yes | 11c | 1,141$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 9c | 1,114$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes | 21c | 1,071$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.64 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 10c | 1,050$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,045$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.85 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…9f17backed Yes | 19c | 1,011$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 40c | 1,009$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.63 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf532…c50cbacked Yes | 21c | 941.82$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…0be9backed Yes | 21c | 938.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabcb…d3ecbacked Yes | 3c | 930$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f3…b4cebacked Yes | 35c | 860$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 26c | 846$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.04 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…8832backed Yes | 15c | 845.89$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92ea…c4a6backed Yes | 21c | 843.37$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…4138backed Yes | 12c | 833.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 23c | 820.08$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…1697backed Yes | 19c | 799.65$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.73 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c60…4eacbacked No | 78c | 790.27$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac6…92cabacked Yes | 29c | 772.47$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.17 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 14c | 710.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked No | 70c | 699.99$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf147…9722backed Yes | 15c | 696.63$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 693.72$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe12e…c453backed Yes | 14c | 686.62$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…4e23backed No | 74c | 649.99$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.3 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…81b5backed Yes | 16c | 634.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2945…c6ddbacked Yes | 24c | 630.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88dc…7a0abacked Yes | 16c | 619.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 24c | 612$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.65 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 17c | 603.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 14c | 599.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 33c | 589.07$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.68 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c870backed Yes | 21c | 564.24$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…fa00backed Yes | 18c | 556.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 552.88$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 19c | 525.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 11c | 519.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 6c | 510$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 16c | 510$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…71f6backed Yes | 20c | 507$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…518fbacked Yes | 17c | 506.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc64b…516dbacked Yes | 4c | 506.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 26c | 499.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?this page
- Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will France strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UK strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.