Middle East · resolved market
Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca1a7ba0361211e381bad3c03d7f1f33c9e6fd219ba5aea4abff215f7988a1d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $246,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $204,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 21c | 11,789$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…e3e6backed Yes | 4c | 10,850$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…8c1bbacked Yes | 14c | 7,400$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,491$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.9 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 4c | 5,421$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.39 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83e0…53e6backed Yes | 8c | 5,001$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.1 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…3591backed Yes | 31c | 4,121$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.13 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdb…73dabacked Yes | 9c | 3,994$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +99%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,416$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.99 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…c90dbacked No | 75c | 3,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 2,998$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.25 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…c941backed Yes | 7c | 2,834$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,549$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16eb…8b06backed Yes | 9c | 2,443$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 3c | 2,395$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,200$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.98 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 9c | 2,007$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.95 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 6c | 1,933$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…937fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,631$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa2…7179backed Yes | 1c | 1,629$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…9f17backed Yes | 10c | 1,613$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…ec74backed Yes | 1c | 1,604$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 5c | 1,566$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…032fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,533$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x577f…07ebbacked Yes | 6c | 1,364$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…66e6backed Yes | 4c | 1,325$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 9c | 1,320$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.3 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…0035backed Yes | 9c | 1,280$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,267$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc44…11f6backed Yes | 4c | 1,266$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a2…183fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf277…9a5fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,061$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb521…18f6backed Yes | 10c | 1,054$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…1fb6backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x878f…1755backed Yes | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 2c | 999.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb05…4d59backed Yes | 12c | 867.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 855.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdf…dd37backed Yes | 12c | 833.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 12c | 760.31$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.32 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 35c | 750.93$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.93 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 19c | 740.31$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.69 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4206…6d13backed Yes | 7c | 740$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 713.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4461…4485backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5efd…e08ebacked Yes | 8c | 612.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…c477backed Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 9c | 599.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 590.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…4433backed Yes | 18c | 557.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 524.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf43…71aabacked Yes | 11c | 500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…821fbacked Yes | 10c | 496$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 7c | 477.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 11c | 463.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e7…0d6fbacked Yes | 9c | 454.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d7…7848backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x605f…2ab6backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…f4e1backed Yes | 9c | 425.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5653…7334backed Yes | 14c | 423.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 12c | 384.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e7…a322backed Yes | 12c | 363.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 15c | 328.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 308.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f0…fc65backed Yes | 16c | 289$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc5…d3ccbacked Yes | 7c | 272.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…f605backed Yes | 8c | 269.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +180.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc687…ea1bbacked Yes | 4c | 248.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4505…1cf0backed Yes | 7c | 237.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…ad22backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…ec34backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed9…3e01backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7714…0720backed Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13aa…88d6backed Yes | 22c | 185.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a3…7feabacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf06…4799backed Yes | 8c | 162.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 9c | 161.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 15c | 158.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d90…8b87backed Yes | 10c | 148.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 9c | 145.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…db11backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 8c | 125.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa317…b797backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c80…a49dbacked No | 73c | 120.79$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…1907backed Yes | 10c | 103.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd004…d54abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26af…8fc1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…cddbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 12c | 86.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…4f5bbacked Yes | 14c | 84.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf44…4d45backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?this page
- Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will France strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UK strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.