Middle East · resolved market
Will France strike Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0942f5ee13a4cdb53b020d60766260a2e0f602af85804392f5c77f80ea9a9b0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $773,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $650,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $773,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 477 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 7c | 24,305$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.82 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked Yes | 7c | 20,025$1,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.63 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 7c | 16,867$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.22 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…e48fbacked Yes | 27c | 15,681$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 9c | 13,176$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.13 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 79c | 12,639$9,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,689.38 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 7c | 11,245$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.28 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30dc…15b2backed Yes | 1c | 10,700$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…112abacked Yes | 10c | 10,589$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…3b0fbacked Yes | 18c | 10,243$1,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.41 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 5c | 8,912$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.6 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 8c | 8,203$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.97 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa2…191cbacked Yes | 42c | 7,587$3,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,167.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b67…b1debacked Yes | 10c | 7,306$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 6,608$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 6,248$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.09 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 10c | 5,800$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.35 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 8c | 5,779$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.6 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc977…5829backed Yes | 19c | 5,358$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd624…a0f8backed Yes | 32c | 4,702$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 4,632$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.42 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 77c | 4,587$3,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.93 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 15c | 4,511$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.14 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…eb0ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,700$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 79c | 3,500$2,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 3,485$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.63 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…16c1backed Yes | 20c | 3,476$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Yes | 15c | 3,415$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,337$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.75 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 12c | 3,332$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.51 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked No | 77c | 3,263$2,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.13 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…a526backed Yes | 16c | 3,235$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.59 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 9c | 3,195$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.66 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…35d3backed Yes | 21c | 3,000$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.67 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…3852backed Yes | 17c | 2,885$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,879$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 5c | 2,870$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.45 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x910d…2e2dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,835$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…e90fbacked Yes | 21c | 2,800$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.8 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1d…6819backed Yes | 25c | 2,786$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 24c | 2,773$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.65 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 2,766$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…fca9backed Yes | 8c | 2,760$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.02 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,662$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.76 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes | 10c | 2,608$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,594$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,576$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe838…92fbbacked Yes | 14c | 2,553$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 6c | 2,508$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.98 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 76c | 2,500$1,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.5 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed No | 49c | 2,500$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.9 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 78c | 2,500$1,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.24 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca8…625ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,460$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed3…c43fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,358$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.05 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…a073backed Yes | 9c | 2,326$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5b…bafcbacked Yes | 11c | 2,251$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff5…60abbacked Yes | 25c | 2,200$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf532…c50cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,127$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.03 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 2,065$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.16 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda71…9351backed Yes | 10c | 2,031$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +654.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…794cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.97 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a2…183fbacked Yes | 14c | 2,000$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.67 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 8c | 1,909$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.2 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes | 20c | 1,886$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…9f17backed Yes | 11c | 1,804$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.46 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 16cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 80c | 1,788$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.59 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 20c | 1,701$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.54 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes | 12c | 1,700$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…f9a0backed Yes | 11c | 1,693$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x627d…7d68backed No | 79c | 1,655$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.88 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…9f3fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,651$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 1,616$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…b2d8backed Yes | 12c | 1,611$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 18c | 1,591$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.26 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 74c | 1,569$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.05 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 4c | 1,495$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed Yes | 5c | 1,478$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…9840backed Yes | 2c | 1,433$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc570…c2a0backed Yes | 7c | 1,378$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 20c | 1,347$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.32 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f6…d494backed Yes | 15c | 1,316$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…e27bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,312$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 11c | 1,303$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.79 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,300$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 77c | 1,282$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.99 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,256$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.85 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bb…029ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,248$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa988…ed6fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,229$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 29c | 1,187$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.8 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 2c | 1,177$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…fa73backed Yes | 17c | 1,173$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c9…e71cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,147$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | +305.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 9c | 1,124$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 1,119$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b1…3ef7backed Yes | 21c | 1,116$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 1,077$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 19c | 1,057$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x493c…953ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,050$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.99 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France strike Iran by March 31?this page
- Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UK strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.