Middle East · resolved market
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa825060543929a11ab634061cfa410dbc3ba3d216e2c3449474c548dde0178b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $922,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $862,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $922,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 2c | 25,874$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.38 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…6283backed Yes | 2c | 20,289$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.1 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 5c | 17,864$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.12 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf532…c50cbacked Yes | 3c | 13,812$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 13,271$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.73 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 4c | 12,558$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.28 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe24…cc8bbacked Yes | 15c | 10,124$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Yes | 13c | 10,023$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.88 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x220d…f4e9backed Yes | 7c | 9,871$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8d…3fb3backed Yes | 3c | 9,707$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 12c | 9,238$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.43 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5b…8167backed Yes | 13c | 9,202$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 5c | 9,051$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.38 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 9,032$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.16 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…0a88backed Yes | 13c | 8,491$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked Yes | 2c | 8,000$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 5c | 7,466$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.04 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 7,121$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 6,606$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.76 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 7c | 6,488$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.84 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,020$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.41 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x469b…7e0ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,743$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 5,268$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 5,017$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.45 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 8c | 4,917$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.56 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4206…6d13backed Yes | 2c | 4,618$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 2c | 4,520$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,474$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.27 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…794cbacked Yes | 7c | 4,420$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 6c | 4,400$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.25 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad9…861cbacked Yes | 7c | 4,179$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.51 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 15c | 3,988$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.45 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88dc…7a0abacked Yes | 2c | 3,985$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 2c | 3,896$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.12 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 10c | 3,867$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.32 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…c976backed Yes | 3c | 3,830$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 2c | 3,735$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…439ebacked Yes | 12c | 3,628$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.57 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a2…183fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,576$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.59 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 3,532$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.26 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,511$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,380$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 3c | 3,261$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.82 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…e8ccbacked Yes | 8c | 3,214$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.23 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…68dbbacked Yes | 17c | 2,942$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 2,827$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…e046backed Yes | 5c | 2,750$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.04 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 19c | 2,654$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdf96…3263backed Yes | 8c | 2,564$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…9840backed Yes | 1c | 2,474$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,466$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed Yes | 12c | 2,408$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked Yes | 15c | 2,389$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes | 5c | 2,376$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb66…a041backed Yes | 11c | 2,366$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79a…9b44backed Yes | 9c | 2,332$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 1c | 2,315$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,273$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…c419backed Yes | 9c | 2,257$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.02 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 11c | 2,240$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.43 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…ada4backed Yes | 12c | 2,150$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…820fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,121$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a3…7feabacked Yes | 7c | 2,048$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…5e5cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,044$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.01 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…00babacked Yes | 8c | 2,036$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.52 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 11c | 2,025$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.51 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c4…acaabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 2c | 1,968$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 8c | 1,962$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.35 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca54…f9e6backed Yes | 1c | 1,895$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e6…8197backed Yes | 11c | 1,809$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…3248backed Yes | 1c | 1,775$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24be…183ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,770$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0390…ddc8backed Yes | 5c | 1,760$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +1,791.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…60c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,528$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 16c | 1,524$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.56 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e51…141dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,467$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.6 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,465$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…7302backed Yes | 2c | 1,444$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4498…078dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,394$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…20a3backed Yes | 9c | 1,389$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.06 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…56fdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,355$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…a20dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,335$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 10c | 1,332$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.73 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…6202backed Yes | 2c | 1,332$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c0…a68dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,293$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x963b…64ddbacked Yes | 8c | 1,282$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 2c | 1,279$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…e2ffbacked Yes | 8c | 1,242$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…89a9backed Yes | 15c | 1,222$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.05 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,215$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c9…e71cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,214$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | +305.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae6…1e1bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,214$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…16c1backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,059$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?this page
- Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will France strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UK strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.