Middle East · resolved market
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x149e2cdbf5b3df3142452412c4c9f4e8f39379020ba1bc25c1811a3f43c8ad27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,337,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,416,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,337,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,984 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8213…083bbacked Yes | 11c | 49,856$5,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,404.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878f…1755backed Yes | 55c | 34,408$19,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,080.68 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 17c | 32,206$5,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,503.34 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 43c | 25,744$11,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,639.27 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 38c | 24,329$9,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,083.72 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 16c | 22,724$3,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,537.15 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…c3a4backed Yes | 3c | 19,770$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.9 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked No | 69c | 19,759$13,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,094.55 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 57c | 19,129$10,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,938.45 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 49c | 17,990$8,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,217.45 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 66c | 17,345$11,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,862.8 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 77c | 15,910$12,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,675.24 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…43c8backed Yes | 48c | 15,480$7,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,448.27 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…f5c0backed No | 36c | 14,910$5,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,543.15 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +9.1wins | +0.25per pick | 36cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc029…f705backed Yes | 52c | 14,666$7,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,558.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +1,883.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23eb…48d8backed Yes | 7c | 13,520$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 69c | 13,305$9,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,103.44 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 27c | 12,422$3,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,382.44 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed Yes | 28c | 12,085$3,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,419.9 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 68c | 11,730$7,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,758.64 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 10c | 11,543$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.61 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 54c | 11,429$6,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,280.09 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…5ad0backed Yes | 14c | 11,377$1,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,634 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…e8b3backed Yes | 8c | 10,984$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed No | 67c | 10,724$7,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,549.45 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…809abacked Yes | 77c | 10,332$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae6…dd45backed Yes | 16c | 10,231$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 59c | 10,212$6,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,184.75 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a8…7331backed Yes | 17c | 10,162$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,682.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe838…92fbbacked Yes | 30c | 10,090$3,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,019.68 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 43c | 9,677$4,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,558.84 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d8…0c91backed No | 72c | 9,427$6,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,639.19 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 12c | 9,179$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 74c | 8,745$6,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,303.22 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 40c | 8,577$3,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,181.36 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 62c | 8,456$5,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,205.18 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 54c | 8,364$4,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,814.49 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed Yes | 67c | 8,008$5,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,368.09 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde8f…8fd8backed No | 57c | 7,836$4,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,355.68 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 31c | 7,647$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.77 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 58c | 7,617$4,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,200.75 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c7…27e4backed Yes | 76c | 7,553$5,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,725.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 20c | 7,417$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 47c | 7,170$3,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,363.94 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 30c | 7,158$2,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,141.98 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…509bbacked No | 55c | 7,123$3,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,215.17 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 78c | 7,098$5,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.69 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -10.5wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…3ef9backed Yes | 68c | 7,000$4,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,759.15 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…58c7backed Yes | 18c | 7,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 68c | 6,937$4,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,230.83 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 34c | 6,848$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,545.38 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…2b42backed Yes | 11c | 6,704$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…6283backed Yes | 17c | 6,629$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.07 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda45…5fa4backed Yes | 26c | 6,525$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 48c | 6,507$3,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,370.26 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…a94bbacked No | 78c | 6,262$4,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.45 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe24…cc8bbacked Yes | 48c | 6,262$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 34c | 6,237$2,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,123.16 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 62c | 6,163$3,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,847.25 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 51c | 6,120$3,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,005.03 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 6,061$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ed…109dbacked Yes | 33c | 5,988$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 49c | 5,983$2,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,043.64 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 76c | 5,879$4,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.5 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Yes | 57c | 5,873$3,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,353.64 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ba…4372backed Yes | 29c | 5,605$1,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603.47 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,329$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…5e86backed Yes | 14c | 5,100$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.07 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 36c | 5,012$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,220.37 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…c2f9backed Yes | 24c | 5,000$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.97 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 12c | 4,997$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.52 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 61c | 4,986$3,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,966.16 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes | 20c | 4,952$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d81…5c1ebacked Yes | 20c | 4,933$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…62e9backed Yes | 22c | 4,656$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…2c91backed Yes | 30c | 4,622$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa94f…6d6fbacked No | 40c | 4,547$1,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,734.89 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 30c | 4,503$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.95 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…6dffbacked No | 59c | 4,499$2,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,862.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdb…73dabacked Yes | 37c | 4,489$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.32 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +99%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 4,448$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.91 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 4,386$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.36 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 18c | 4,354$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.57 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…3567backed Yes | 32c | 4,212$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…b882backed Yes | 17c | 4,100$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…aa3cbacked Yes | 62c | 4,043$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 12c | 4,042$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.18 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8261…a3f1backed Yes | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed No | 67c | 4,000$2,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed No | 29c | 3,988$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850.78 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508f…502dbacked Yes | 42c | 3,965$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7806…6594backed Yes | 71c | 3,932$2,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,789.36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…13eebacked Yes | 8c | 3,860$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.61 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 32c | 3,773$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,582.57 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x952b…edfabacked No | 77c | 3,763$2,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.63 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +12.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +50%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5c30…112abacked Yes | 16c | 3,563$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 21c | 3,557$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.21 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 54c | 3,556$1,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,916.11 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 48c | 3,547$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,687.12 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…9e90backed No | 47c | 3,515$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,869.82 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?this page
- Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will France strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will UK strike Iran by March 31?No won
- Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.