TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x36ae…3567

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
58
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: AI, grading 49 out of 100 (-0.01 per pick) — its least-bad Category, not a recommendation. Every Category this wallet trades grades at or below 50, which is what “no edge at all” looks like.

Best Category AI at 49 out of 100; worst Middle East at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4022.5%9 W · 31 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-39.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$620Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$620
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+163.9%+$1,638.65
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,020Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,019.99
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$606Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$605.64
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$383Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$382.51
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$504Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+61.1%+$307.93
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$872Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+287.3%+$2,504.9
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$531Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$530.99
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,207Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,206.74
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,344Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,344
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$719Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$719
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$559Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$559.07
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$2,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,900.42
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,272Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+28.4%+$361.33
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$674Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$673.98
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.75
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$354Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$354.22
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$232.99
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,652Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,652.5
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$476Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$476
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$490
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,589Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,588.98
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-78%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
UFC — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.