AI · resolved market
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x921c8b1ad76c45ae7b791e0b14e5a957a3743a4616fc3934bb428e551ac73cf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes | 0c | 19,064$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…3567backed Yes | 4c | 10,064$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f9…d241backed Yes | 5c | 5,450$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…a49dbacked Yes | 18c | 5,231$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 2,085$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…661bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,061$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c19…5727backed Yes | 7c | 1,546$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b17…fc41backed Yes | 11c | 1,436$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c1…ffabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470c…2af9backed Yes | 8c | 1,177$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,113$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…a789backed Yes | 9c | 896.19$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 876.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…31abbacked Yes | 4c | 835.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa043…3e9ebacked Yes | 3c | 825.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…2e70backed Yes | 8c | 749.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 3c | 726.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…99ecbacked Yes | 12c | 719.19$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf272…7289backed Yes | 15c | 622.61$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee5…c535backed Yes | 4c | 571.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4224…d0b5backed Yes | 5c | 560.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2669…fa0dbacked Yes | 3c | 559.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes | 5c | 544.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 62c | 520$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.86 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ff…259bbacked Yes | 4c | 481.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 4c | 447.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd097…78f9backed Yes | 4c | 431.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Yes | 4c | 429.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 36c | 415.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.82 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3acd…3a4fbacked Yes | 5c | 330.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 5c | 231.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…0101backed Yes | 14c | 195.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32da…0e82backed Yes | 14c | 191.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf4…d01abacked Yes | 7c | 176.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 44c | 171.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…89f6backed Yes | 7c | 145$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 7c | 142.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002b…4f53backed Yes | 8c | 129.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1435…8c03backed Yes | 10c | 104.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026?this page
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 14, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 17, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 19, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 24, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 25, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 26, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 27, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 28, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 29, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 30, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.