AI · resolved market
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc2542558e284aca60f3dc3e2ee649d6c034238489dcfd3c8d071cef71f426d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae6…a0e7backed Yes | 2c | 6,151$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 4c | 4,991$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.91 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,943$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed Yes | 3c | 2,890$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…b6d4backed Yes | 3c | 2,405$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…97c5backed Yes | 3c | 2,035$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 1c | 1,646$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,330$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,199$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 9c | 1,039$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.35 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f6…4b8bbacked Yes | 1c | 967.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 7c | 810.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…e9f6backed Yes | 3c | 724.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 3c | 658.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 498.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…4d17backed Yes | 5c | 419.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 5c | 392.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 4c | 274.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 5c | 260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 9c | 211.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 30, 2026?this page
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 14, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 17, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 19, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 24, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 25, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 26, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 27, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 28, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 29, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.