AI · resolved market
Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6b77514d97e8b98b14a840b306a18bfebed19c634d86b6744b5ca5bd5e1c041
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $195,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 0c | 54,306$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.91 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d33…b3a7backed Yes | 0c | 8,598$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…eb16backed Yes | 4c | 6,992$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 6c | 5,733$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,967$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,715$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.79 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Yes | 6c | 3,452$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,900$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…3722backed Yes | 3c | 2,688$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…5c99backed Yes | 7c | 2,414$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…c4a0backed Yes | 5c | 2,152$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…bf91backed Yes | 6c | 1,312$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 6c | 1,134$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 5c | 884.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c16…8c12backed Yes | 5c | 848$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3641…0ff8backed Yes | 4c | 819.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 6c | 731.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ea…02edbacked Yes | 4c | 692.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ef…d899backed Yes | 5c | 619.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…921bbacked Yes | 5c | 609.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 607.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 2c | 532.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6866…b8f4backed Yes | 5c | 499.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 494.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…b3a6backed Yes | 5c | 491.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 477.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…97c5backed Yes | 4c | 460.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2731…6e32backed Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbba…d60fbacked Yes | 4c | 356.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…da0abacked Yes | 6c | 322.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 11c | 309.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…a859backed Yes | 6c | 296.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f6…4b8bbacked Yes | 4c | 295.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c58…1ac5backed Yes | 5c | 289.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1776…da33backed Yes | 5c | 198.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…64e7backed Yes | 6c | 181.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 9c | 152.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…fa7bbacked Yes | 14c | 102.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…1838backed Yes | 14c | 100.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 65c | 97.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 14, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 17, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 19, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 24, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 25, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 26, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 27, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 28, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 29, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.