AI · resolved market
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6213a4e3c9657d2caf897624d50dd1540d39664b081b5fce96be0e9b195bdf69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf2e…f1d8backed Yes | 5c | 12,472$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…3567backed Yes | 5c | 5,364$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,006$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…93f8backed Yes | 6c | 3,383$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae6…a0e7backed Yes | 7c | 3,067$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.56 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…1078backed Yes | 3c | 2,485$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c9…4c22backed Yes | 7c | 1,947$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 6c | 1,745$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe20…c8fabacked Yes | 20c | 1,419$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ff…259bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,123$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,030$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…efcfbacked Yes | 3c | 836.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103d…ebd3backed Yes | 12c | 795.44$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…4c3fbacked Yes | 3c | 670.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…bbd0backed Yes | 8c | 621.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…b294backed Yes | 8c | 586.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…5c2abacked Yes | 6c | 549.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d9…b94cbacked Yes | 5c | 401.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +162.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 6c | 318.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…6f93backed Yes | 5c | 299.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7af1…5a2dbacked Yes | 5c | 276.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 6c | 243.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…9350backed Yes | 5c | 240.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +107%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 67c | 230$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabd7…c531backed Yes | 14c | 199.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa49…0721backed Yes | 6c | 180.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 6c | 154.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026?this page
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 14, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 17, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 19, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 24, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 25, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 26, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 27, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 28, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 29, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 30, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.