AI · resolved market
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5424dec2819e219c261df530d5bc479373fa83913d47ee6730cdec35dec93ba0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x239d…5fe2backed Yes | 26c | 7,931$2,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…4c3fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,248$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,112$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 35c | 1,998$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.57 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…0b02backed Yes | 4c | 1,951$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 2c | 1,572$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,360$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab0…42b7backed No | 78c | 1,334$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed No | 38c | 1,286$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 10c | 1,029$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.16 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 5c | 992.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…1349backed Yes | 1c | 971.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 800$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes | 6c | 796.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d99…2880backed Yes | 1c | 795.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…aae2backed Yes | 6c | 688.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…cb17backed Yes | 3c | 654.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2589…6868backed No | 54c | 592.72$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +98%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 6c | 556.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001d…22a2backed Yes | 3c | 514.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1079…8c77backed Yes | 2c | 459.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 8c | 323.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 318.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…1c56backed Yes | 60c | 312.33$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470c…2af9backed No | 35c | 306.35$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.98 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 17c | 268.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f4…5222backed Yes | 59c | 188.78$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 188.24$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 30c | 179$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7825…3c08backed Yes | 13c | 148.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…9a1bbacked Yes | 13c | 148.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 62c | 144$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…e5a1backed No | 77c | 133.4$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 18c | 130.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…ded9backed Yes | 36c | 126.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 34c | 107.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.12 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 13c | 92.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…eee9backed Yes | 69c | 70.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 34c | 65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…6f43backed Yes | 28c | 47.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 23c | 44.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1245backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…5c8bbacked No | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 33c | 33.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03aa…5821backed Yes | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…c807backed No | 70c | 27.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660e…b3c2backed Yes | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe77d…7383backed Yes | 59c | 20.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed Yes | 67c | 19.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026?this page
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 14, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 17, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 19, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 22, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 24, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 25, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 26, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 27, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 28, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 29, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 30, 2026?No won
- Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.