UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9eb23f24c4de7b7f330e8639d570db8b22f29e19d9896d340a53db9da627aa70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,837 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 71c | 1,777$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.7 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ae…3567backed Yes | 53c | 1,124$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 65c | 762.93$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.36 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 70c | 743.79$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.54 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 72c | 667.13$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.24 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 45c | 653.72$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.59 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd6…84cdbacked Yes | 30c | 590.76$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 69c | 536.77$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.86 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…bda6backed Yes | 30c | 332.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…9f55backed Yes | 34c | 331.93$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 68c | 329.13$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.93 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 64c | 310.79$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.04 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…0da4backed Yes | 27c | 273.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed Yes | 29c | 272.41$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Yes | 29c | 230$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 71c | 211$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 69c | 198$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.85 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…cf48backed Yes | 35c | 168$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 73c | 164.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 12c | 158.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbc…3077backed No | 70c | 152.39$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d5…5314backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf414…3731backed Yes | 28c | 137.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad9…00febacked Yes | 29c | 135.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…4026backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…99dcbacked Yes | 30c | 132.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb90…9ce5backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…2081backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809f…a8c2backed Yes | 29c | 103.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…2297backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 68c | 96.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 69.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ade…6c52backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1850…112cbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…9600backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked Yes | 34c | 63.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b37…85a2backed Yes | 66c | 60.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 29c | 54.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…6925backed No | 71c | 52.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c79…cb10backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c910backed Yes | 30c | 49.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a1…2e05backed Yes | 33c | 48.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 72c | 46.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc442…8d9cbacked Yes | 34c | 43.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdef…5312backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca15…8a46backed Yes | 32c | 40.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0d…4afbbacked Yes | 28c | 36.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…6244backed Yes | 39c | 30.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…8c16backed No | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…d895backed No | 62c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 24.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…4a9fbacked Yes | 66c | 23.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)Charles Oliveira won
- Will Charles Oliveira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.