UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2976ec223a5176df01e5e16d7a87be4e7933f3dd082f7c1c1a3b68e19a18a1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,887 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 50c | 1,991$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.84 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…9d3ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,030$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 52c | 663.04$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 50c | 619.58$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.98 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed Yes | 50c | 598.03$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 54c | 524.96$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.06 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 54c | 458.77$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.55 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 42c | 456.9$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed Yes | 49c | 350.21$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…0303backed Yes | 58c | 256.9$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b9…1d4dbacked Yes | 48c | 249.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…e3c9backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 51c | 154.54$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7545…1ecfbacked Yes | 49c | 102.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 89.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Yes | 43c | 84.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa142…375abacked Yes | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf080…0544backed Yes | 49c | 79.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…423abacked Yes | 49c | 79.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…a463backed Yes | 57c | 61.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 50c | 61.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 49c | 60.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…00c2backed Yes | 49c | 60.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…6bc9backed No | 56c | 53.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…5150backed Yes | 49c | 51.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 50.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc4…a739backed Yes | 50c | 50.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad97…dc4cbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…aea9backed Yes | 50c | 40.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…6925backed No | 53c | 36.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfba…a1b4backed Yes | 56c | 35.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…ada8backed No | 57c | 35.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf8…beb8backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…1d46backed Yes | 50c | 30.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd1…2df7backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…b7a3backed Yes | 49c | 28.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…a67abacked Yes | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x352f…bf97backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 44c | 26.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb1…bd66backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…8b97backed No | 51c | 25.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked No | 57c | 23.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1680…38b0backed Yes | 50c | 20.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4053…ab9fbacked Yes | 49c | 20.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35b4…2fe1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…175dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)Charles Oliveira won
- Will Charles Oliveira win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.