UFC · resolved market
Will Charles Oliveira win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe84bf1cb400c84e8dfd0bdec43df8c34a6a012e33c6e3793d9aac12610ce3cc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c95…32ebbacked Yes | 14c | 2,372$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.9 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad16…4f4cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,542$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf414…3731backed Yes | 11c | 1,364$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…922ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,153$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32da…f236backed Yes | 13c | 1,116$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…2728backed Yes | 14c | 1,049$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c62…d8d6backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…6cf9backed Yes | 12c | 830.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce6…8022backed Yes | 12c | 815.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ad…6a2dbacked Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaf…842ebacked Yes | 15c | 639.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…5b05backed Yes | 16c | 626.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b6…4eddbacked Yes | 11c | 448.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Yes | 11c | 403.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…359fbacked Yes | 16c | 399.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…4aafbacked Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfe…4c2ebacked Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 78c | 341.87$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.79 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a80…9917backed Yes | 11c | 318.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…33f5backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c5…7962backed Yes | 14c | 278.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af4…1214backed Yes | 11c | 265.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7f…336fbacked Yes | 14c | 248.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee6f…92d9backed Yes | 14c | 242.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8d…22f0backed Yes | 11c | 209.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ea…75aabacked Yes | 10c | 197.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4788…94ccbacked Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…b65dbacked Yes | 11c | 179.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc45c…488abacked Yes | 11c | 172.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…233ebacked Yes | 11c | 172.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c7…5d22backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3264…670dbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb90…9ce5backed Yes | 12c | 162.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb696…232cbacked Yes | 12c | 154.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…cfdebacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…8cebbacked Yes | 14c | 143.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49da…0f6abacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa417…690cbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac4…e9d5backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…02f2backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb737…9c11backed Yes | 14c | 136.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ab…482ebacked Yes | 15c | 129.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…d59fbacked Yes | 11c | 127.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda1b…14adbacked Yes | 12c | 123.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf202…cef1backed Yes | 13c | 116.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5d…014bbacked Yes | 12c | 113.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1af6…0d06backed Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf080…0544backed Yes | 11c | 101.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93fe…9a10backed Yes | 11c | 100.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…b7a3backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…b2d8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e5…0b22backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16aa…821cbacked Yes | 11c | 99.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf07…5129backed Yes | 12c | 96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…c7e0backed Yes | 12c | 92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…33b8backed Yes | 13c | 83.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a17…38b0backed No | 77c | 71.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +334.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c81…3dffbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 79c | 12.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Charles Oliveira win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)Charles Oliveira won
- Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.