TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,940 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd34b…0004backed No57c5,534$3,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371.0511761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No57c5,518$3,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,352.5537152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No63c2,625$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.4527448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5464…9d3ebacked Yes45c2,235$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,005.961163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ff7…7f87backed Yes42c2,131$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.03911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-51.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf05…291bbacked Yes40c1,999$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.73650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No61c1,528$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.3423537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ce…978cbacked Yes43c1,257$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.45933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-51.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x97cc…4cd5backed Yes43c1,023$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440110%0 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed No60c889.01$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.831080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked No63c753.89$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.271030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-53.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30015556.8%88 W · 67 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No58c646.88$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.1715540.6%63 W · 92 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No59c605.85$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.7521247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01d4…33d8backed Yes41c557.56$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fc4…db58backed Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No59c430.06$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.933933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27e4…9b87backed Yes42c429.81$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc2b…9fa5backed Yes38c393.6$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5085…9bbcbacked Yes40c387.5$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7531…4c33backed Yes42c355.66$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9c7…5d22backed Yes43c352.27$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No57c301.24$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.5320249%99 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1146451.6%33 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56cb…21a0backed Yes39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+52.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ee…7e3abacked Yes41c246.49$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb20…40a6backed No59c243.98$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.61475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d3d…a3e8backed No70c242.31$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x751d…9f55backed Yes42c236.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid+36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f7b…3425backed Yes42c236.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4008…2942backed Yes41c233.9$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x950a…71e4backed Yes43c233.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid+25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No64c232.91$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8321031.9%67 W · 143 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7836745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bc6…9487backed Yes28c196.43$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5550%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Yes40c187.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7511057.3%63 W · 47 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eff…98febacked Yes45c185.44$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.03560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…8faebacked No62c184.63$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.165446.3%25 W · 29 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc11e…cd02backed Yes42c166.85$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa80d…d9e6backed Yes43c160$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa810…5246backed Yes40c146.73$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf81a…75e3backed Yes42c142.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604247.6%20 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997a…1b8fbacked Yes42c129.84$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64ad…41d5backed Yes39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-41%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x10c6…34bcbacked Yes42c126.43$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e4c…0314backed Yes40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bc…ec72backed Yes16c120$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9315848.1%76 W · 82 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x81a2…0907backed Yes43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x887b…a74ebacked Yes43c104.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No59c103.59$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.488848.9%43 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7545…1ecfbacked Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.94027.5%11 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc80…ae6fbacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfece…8b97backed No59c99.98$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.991850%9 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+42%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x41ba…8059backed Yes30c93.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+177.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x275b…611fbacked Yes43c90.7$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5e…0381backed Yes40c87.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353548.6%17 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x83e1…6993backed No64c80.66$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes38c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.452252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked No71c79.98$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.083652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b5…4642backed Yes43c75.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab60…fef6backed Yes40c72.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fe…9a10backed Yes42c71.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b7f…a8e5backed Yes41c70.73$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92c9…de3bbacked Yes42c70.21$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+194.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed No56c65.05$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8790553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb6a…0b6bbacked Yes39c64.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+29%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fc4…a739backed Yes39c64.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1edc…00cfbacked Yes39c64.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa706…f953backed Yes40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4962…b294backed Yes38c61.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08d8…a23bbacked Yes40c61.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid+31.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x653b…f478backed Yes41c60.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9690…5c6cbacked Yes41c60.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3f0…bf7dbacked Yes42c60.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254032.5%13 W · 27 L-7.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-24%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x29dd…6dafbacked Yes37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5752…207dbacked Yes41c51.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…2d13backed Yes39c50.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.113646.3%63 W · 73 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14c9…e67ebacked Yes42c49.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7200…4257backed Yes42c48.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2c8…efc1backed Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80a9…52ecbacked Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33c9…ada8backed Yes40c46.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.67250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb90…9ce5backed Yes44c45.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201050%5 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+44%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc50a…616bbacked Yes42c43.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa6…9377backed Yes41c42.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15d4…56a2backed Yes41c42.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.321136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69bc…c942backed Yes42c39.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf080…0544backed Yes39c38.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.270%0 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x22e8…233ebacked Yes39c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c3…e02cbacked Yes41c36.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19df…e8c7backed Yes41c36.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f07…63f3backed Yes42c35.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a42…2096backed Yes42c35.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a9a…3c1fbacked Yes37c35.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x566a…881abacked Yes37c34.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.956462.5%40 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89d3…59a6backed Yes42c34.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1c3…b7a3backed Yes41c34.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f5d…124dbacked No62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.262100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+119.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.