TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x997a…1b8f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
116
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NHL, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 57 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT3026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-41.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+203.8%+$61.15
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+77.4%+$30.96
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$107
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+44%+$12.77
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$72.88
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+38.9%+$9.72
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$7.2
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+170.3%+$102.16
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+285.3%+$85.58
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$74
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$62.64
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$13.06
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$67
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT2437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend UFC Freedom 250?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Ciryl Gane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+97.6%+$73.24
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Derrick Lewis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Sean Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$127.89
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Tim Elliott · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Ollie Schmid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Josh Emmett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+66.7%+$8.67
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Reinier de Ridder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$12
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Rob Font · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$31
UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Drew Dober · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+61.1%+$22.62
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Cody Garbrandt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+150%+$30
UFC 326: Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Ricky Turcios · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$13
UFC 326: Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+51.5%+$10.3
UFC 326: Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar (Flyweight, Early Prelims)backed Jesus Aguilar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$15
UFC 326: Rodolfo Bellato vs. Luke Fernandez (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)backed Rodolfo Bellato · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+186.5%+$27.98
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Vera · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+82.5%+$45.37
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+244.8%+$296.24
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Allen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$13
UFC 324: Figueiredo vs. Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Figueiredo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 24 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST1457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
76ers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+132.6%+$59.65
Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)backed Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Spurs vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Mavericks vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+72.4%+$28.97
Clippers vs. Pistonsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+112.8%+$39.47
Hawks vs. Nuggetsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+75.4%+$22.63
Pelicans vs. Wizardsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+26.6%+$6.38
Magic vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Raptors vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$199.62
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+78.6%+$35.84
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$40.18
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+69.5%+$24.32
Spread: Hornets (-6.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+117.4%+$23.48
All 14 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.83
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.64
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$18.46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+62.3%+$30.17
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+295.4%+$177.25
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST70%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 24, 2025, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kraken vs. Kingsbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+119.1%+$44.18
Flyers vs. Blackhawksbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+87.2%+$34.87
Devils vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+108.3%+$21.67
Penguins vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+62.4%+$22.98
All 4 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-39%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Indiana (-3.5)backed Oregon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$24.75
O/U 52.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$165.4
California vs. Hawaiibacked Hawaii · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+144%+$202.94
Old Dominion vs. South Floridabacked South Florida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$32
All 4 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 52.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$58.69
Spread: Broncos (-13.5)backed Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+92.3%+$78.46
Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$57.2
Spread: Cowboys (-8.5)backed Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$50.18
All 4 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick10cpaid+96.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+652.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoorbacked Demoor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+652.7%+$73.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+38.7%+$24.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$45
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.