Movies · resolved market
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x082353628683ed95b8ee66faf6da7d9ed3b645274a8121b9214aca8d3aeee095
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,850,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,130,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,850,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 759 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 51c | 265,537$135,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129,606.34 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 63c | 109,284$68,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,377.61 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6febbacked No | 1c | 72,438$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 47c | 57,767$27,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,452.23 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf41…e809backed No | 56c | 56,540$31,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,412.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a7…b884backed No | 37c | 55,336$20,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,465.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0703…f707backed No | 57c | 53,619$30,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,360.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…2dd9backed Yes | 67c | 40,249$27,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,145.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…b1fdbacked No | 46c | 38,310$17,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,446.81 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked No | 47c | 37,472$17,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,607 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed No | 35c | 32,695$11,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,605.27 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 41c | 32,450$13,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,322.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 52c | 29,455$15,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,283.79 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…3c53backed No | 19c | 26,248$4,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,945.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…34d9backed No | 6c | 25,500$1,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 72c | 24,554$17,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,909.29 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc618…2f99backed No | 40c | 24,071$9,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,524.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…e185backed No | 8c | 18,405$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514.75 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 52c | 18,000$9,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,706.36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 70c | 17,628$12,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,272.17 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 75c | 17,108$12,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,316.59 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 45c | 17,008$7,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,690.73 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 15,980$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.86 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 72c | 15,671$11,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,419.85 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed No | 11c | 14,950$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 74c | 13,488$9,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,942.29 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da5…25edbacked No | 57c | 13,254$7,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,503.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x014e…23fbbacked No | 2c | 11,751$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…32a7backed Yes | 62c | 11,600$7,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,379.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e08…02d3backed No | 0c | 11,169$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 10,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 4c | 10,291$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.59 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 3c | 10,147$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.39 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 9,407$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.64 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…c3f1backed Yes | 65c | 8,627$5,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,053.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…90e3backed No | 35c | 7,827$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 60c | 7,638$4,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,087.6 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed No | 52c | 7,524$3,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,888.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…fe91backed No | 4c | 7,481$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 13c | 7,265$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.57 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 35c | 7,265$2,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,556.96 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed Yes | 67c | 7,102$4,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,344.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…4f5abacked No | 14c | 7,078$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1c…4cb5backed No | 42c | 7,071$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,995 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…744cbacked No | 4c | 6,893$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 65c | 6,719$4,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,338.2 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed Yes | 25c | 6,658$1,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,986.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2f…578fbacked No | 40c | 6,567$2,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,623.38 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 69c | 6,185$4,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,944.67 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…8079backed No | 0c | 6,100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes | 39c | 6,000$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,639.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 54c | 5,942$3,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,737.96 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes | 43c | 5,920$2,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,354.91 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed No | 47c | 5,906$2,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,766.78 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked Yes | 55c | 5,712$3,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,542.55 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 5,703$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.58 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 42c | 5,655$2,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,349.37 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 58c | 5,403$3,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,279.42 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…5c36backed No | 6c | 5,400$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.32 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 75c | 5,251$3,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.1 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…c826backed No | 5c | 5,201$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.63 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc51e…a146backed No | 48c | 5,151$2,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,481.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 67c | 5,143$3,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700.06 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x857a…f25bbacked No | 0c | 5,120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0211…6846backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1078…6276backed No | 49c | 4,979$2,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,439.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 48c | 4,930$2,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,564.64 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 14c | 4,879$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.32 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa506…7d8abacked No | 1c | 4,852$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…93fdbacked Yes | 57c | 4,813$2,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 61c | 4,674$2,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.33 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 4c | 4,662$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 72c | 4,575$3,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.48 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe99a…918fbacked Yes | 44c | 4,533$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,532.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked No | 33c | 4,500$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 53c | 4,454$2,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080.58 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked No | 12c | 4,272$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…6aeabacked No | 18c | 4,267$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 4c | 4,047$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.54 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked No | 40c | 4,000$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 39c | 3,996$1,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 2c | 3,772$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…f412backed No | 5c | 3,757$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 35c | 3,756$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,456.5 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 75c | 3,672$2,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,769.29 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 60c | 3,656$2,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes | 50c | 3,395$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed No | 22c | 3,381$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 25c | 3,312$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.13 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 62c | 3,200$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 2c | 3,156$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cb…bbf0backed Yes | 53c | 3,116$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…1c2ebacked Yes | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…0c07backed Yes | 33c | 3,000$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Yes | 67c | 3,000$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc682…17bbbacked Yes | 70c | 2,984$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…3c26backed Yes | 47c | 2,971$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0d…ed88backed Yes | 72c | 2,964$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…ae9bbacked No | 55c | 2,836$1,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?this page
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?No won
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?No won
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m and 520m by January 31?No won
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than 520m by January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.