Movies · resolved market
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc00b7abbf9fea8e9858efd0bfe901bfb915e95aecffaed8361cd14460d599a35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,372,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $981,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,372,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 578 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 11c | 52,189$5,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,699.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 35c | 41,871$14,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,585.07 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…b1fdbacked Yes | 43c | 40,000$17,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,338.84 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 2c | 28,287$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.21 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 35c | 27,859$9,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,616.23 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Yes | 25c | 25,712$6,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,496.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 61c | 22,691$13,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,747.17 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…7104backed Yes | 2c | 20,028$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 39c | 17,515$6,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,759.13 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 33c | 15,773$5,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,277.75 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbf…9afabacked Yes | 3c | 15,728$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…6aeabacked Yes | 10c | 14,241$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 6c | 14,008$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 13,916$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.93 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 38c | 13,497$5,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,070.3 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…4d88backed Yes | 5c | 13,457$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 36c | 12,889$4,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,677.89 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e7c…5399backed Yes | 23c | 12,185$2,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,859.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…e185backed Yes | 5c | 11,909$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 36c | 11,273$4,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,013.91 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 6c | 10,674$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.7 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 10,187$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.7 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 9,991$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.02 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 9,117$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.92 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7305…1cb7backed Yes | 47c | 9,046$4,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,265.84 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…744cbacked Yes | 2c | 8,828$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 46c | 8,364$3,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,839.88 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 15c | 8,209$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.08 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Yes | 1c | 7,958$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked Yes | 11c | 7,209$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 7,044$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.3 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,975$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 25c | 6,614$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.6 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…c1c9backed Yes | 4c | 6,470$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.9 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 55c | 6,071$3,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,345.2 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,016$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -68%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 21c | 5,970$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.52 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…5d38backed Yes | 3c | 5,933$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.91 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc258…06a5backed Yes | 1c | 5,708$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 5,699$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.93 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 71c | 5,679$4,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.41 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3d…e051backed Yes | 1c | 5,588$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3809…81e6backed Yes | 1c | 5,510$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 12c | 5,502$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.18 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7958…d34fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,338$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…c3f1backed Yes | 24c | 5,296$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 5,273$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 39c | 5,201$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,035.85 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 5,083$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.99 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea96…11e3backed Yes | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb5…5c36backed Yes | 3c | 4,838$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 40c | 4,830$1,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 11c | 4,760$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.01 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c196backed Yes | 6c | 4,730$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb1…4e9fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,714$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e07…9ecebacked Yes | 8c | 4,566$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…c371backed Yes | 1c | 4,471$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 35c | 4,412$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.89 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…fe91backed Yes | 4c | 4,361$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 14c | 4,223$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.57 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x957b…961abacked Yes | 5c | 4,151$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 4,065$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 1c | 4,028$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb065…c69cbacked Yes | 7c | 3,981$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e4…ff39backed Yes | 2c | 3,744$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 2c | 3,723$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccc…188dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,589$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,582$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee5…3b15backed Yes | 1c | 3,576$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d02…59bfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,553$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…986ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,551$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…9400backed Yes | 9c | 3,501$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 37c | 3,500$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 35c | 3,477$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.72 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…3c26backed Yes | 34c | 3,475$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 36c | 3,418$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.8 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 41c | 3,397$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.19 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes | 30c | 3,300$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.05 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…ca33backed Yes | 3c | 3,241$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…6161backed Yes | 2c | 3,159$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,121$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…f22bbacked Yes | 31c | 3,054$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.29 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…1c2ebacked Yes | 37c | 3,000$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c2…c7aebacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fae…5d6dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,900$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes | 45c | 2,835$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.68 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1078…6276backed Yes | 41c | 2,750$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 26c | 2,718$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb8…69edbacked Yes | 3c | 2,700$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05da…ae41backed Yes | 48c | 2,700$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes | 11c | 2,667$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8925…e428backed Yes | 5c | 2,620$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 42c | 2,575$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.85 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cb…bbf0backed Yes | 30c | 2,517$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.02 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,508$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 2c | 2,493$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 44c | 2,481$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.29 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 43c | 2,471$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.62 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…7de2backed Yes | 2c | 2,435$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?this page
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m and 480m by January 31?No won
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m and 520m by January 31?No won
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be greater than 520m by January 31?No won
- Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.