TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x62c2…c7ae

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
58
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Other European Leagues, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Other European Leagues at 52 out of 100; worst Tweets at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launcheslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT2133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.81
Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$104.6
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Over $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$878Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+44.6%+$391.43
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$760Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$759.57
Immunefi FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$255.45
Over $20M committed to the Space public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$770Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+29.9%+$230
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$3,848Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$3,847.88
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$134
Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,363Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+43.2%+$588.61
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,217Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+506.9%+$6,167.82
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$100.8
Lighter Airdrop on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$132
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$278.51
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+122.2%+$550
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,290Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$1,289.96
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$940Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$939.56
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,559Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$1,558.57
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$25.58
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$431Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+127.3%+$548.7
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$352Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$352
All 21 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.9
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$49
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$380
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3backed TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffsbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$277.01
Will "USA" be said during the CS IEM Rio 2026 Grand Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.58
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$555Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$418.91
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffsbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,329Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,329.49
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,185Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,184.75
Will "Smoke" be said 100+ times during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.76
Will "Headshot" be said 10+ times during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports - Map 3 Winnerbacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$319Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+203.7%+$650.51
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffsbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Bbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit - Map 2 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$58
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$610
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 17 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.1
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$4,111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$4,111.37
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$228.3
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$499
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$163.09
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,388Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,388.36
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$37.94
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+170.3%+$630
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$232.91
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+74.8%+$419.01
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+25%+$200
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$277.74
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Beşiktaş JK vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+138.1%+$98.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$232.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.