Token Launches · resolved market
Immunefi FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0f37be871e8b78055983ac703965d3582d54ea85df03809294a2e5e9affc07c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fcd…c2acbacked No | 74c | 5,161$3,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.98 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 24c | 3,630$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.92 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…9038backed Yes | 28c | 3,556$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…7e4abacked Yes | 18c | 3,499$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 72c | 2,703$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.19 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 2,559$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed Yes | 11c | 1,702$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.4 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0048…ab1cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,200$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62c2…c7aebacked Yes | 23c | 1,110$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.45 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bc…3498backed Yes | 28c | 1,055$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…6d11backed No | 72c | 1,055$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…d941backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…be7ebacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 938.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 79c | 924.98$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.31 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…ffd4backed Yes | 16c | 800$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…4a49backed Yes | 16c | 720.33$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed Yes | 12c | 642.91$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…03e3backed Yes | 36c | 635.21$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.61 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 562.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 550$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd35b…0882backed Yes | 19c | 531.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…2761backed No | 79c | 508$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.53 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 9c | 465.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…16debacked No | 75c | 449.33$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.33 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49a9…82b9backed Yes | 26c | 427$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed No | 74c | 405.26$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.32 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…4ec0backed No | 80c | 372.55$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 79c | 372.02$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…1eebbacked Yes | 21c | 239.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 236.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x263a…2486backed No | 79c | 228.93$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 227.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 217.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe79a…3f26backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…ea6fbacked No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e6…b3fdbacked No | 68c | 194.15$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…5786backed No | 76c | 192.87$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b87…6edcbacked Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…51fdbacked No | 66c | 160$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 9c | 140.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked No | 74c | 134.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -9.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda57…e628backed No | 77c | 108.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 104.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b11…5a66backed Yes | 21c | 100.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda4c…caf3backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24b…b6f4backed Yes | 21c | 90.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…2a28backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed Yes | 18c | 88.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7cca…69b0backed Yes | 58c | 85.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 63cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 17c | 82.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 103 | 70.9%73 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0df…4e74backed Yes | 25c | 54.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…ce60backed Yes | 25c | 51.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 78c | 50.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -17.0wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…77d6backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…50dbbacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…4e7dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9940…b140backed No | 41c | 34.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65d…5278backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…48b3backed No | 71c | 28.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…13ebbacked No | 54c | 26.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55a7…a852backed No | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6f…f5c1backed No | 75c | 20.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc792…7f7dbacked No | 69c | 20.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Immunefi FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Immunefi FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Immunefi FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Immunefi FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Immunefi FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.