Token Launches · resolved market
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a673ef0cd3e1fe071493ae7834b420fd33257bbe76304aa714b8b13f14dbe09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,242,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,230,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,242,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 0c | 500,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e78…6f5fbacked No | 0c | 169,388$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7651…251abacked No | 1c | 135,800$1,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,741.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…d66fbacked Yes | 59c | 69,656$41,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,583.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ce…2e38backed Yes | 46c | 53,862$24,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,086.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 31c | 53,447$16,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,804.94 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4105…2c8cbacked No | 11c | 44,382$4,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,769.49 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 17c | 42,602$7,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,259.01 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a07…50e7backed No | 8c | 38,119$3,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,169.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c7…6ff2backed Yes | 30c | 35,504$10,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,800.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed No | 13c | 33,264$4,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,158.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbce…8faabacked Yes | 75c | 32,379$24,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,105.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed Yes | 45c | 30,588$13,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,767.53 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8a…5705backed Yes | 39c | 30,301$11,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,547.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 12c | 29,118$3,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,495.59 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9826…983bbacked Yes | 78c | 28,559$22,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,344.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382e…043cbacked No | 0c | 27,572$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…fad0backed Yes | 30c | 27,548$8,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,241.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…52d1backed No | 10c | 25,377$2,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,537.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130d…1ef2backed Yes | 40c | 24,036$9,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,478.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…7d88backed Yes | 78c | 23,901$18,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,178.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…0c2abacked No | 19c | 22,980$4,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,463.82 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c58…f3c7backed No | 15c | 22,344$3,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,265.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635c…45c6backed Yes | 41c | 21,457$8,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,583.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…33d1backed No | 8c | 21,087$1,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,676.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 5c | 20,568$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.55 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c5…7ad9backed No | 2c | 20,350$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ab…97b6backed No | 20c | 20,171$3,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,939.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked No | 2c | 20,121$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 7c | 20,030$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.65 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…a634backed Yes | 45c | 20,000$8,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,081.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…8bd4backed No | 0c | 20,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Yes | 34c | 19,286$6,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,694.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…e9d7backed Yes | 56c | 18,332$10,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,114.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd99…4b46backed No | 15c | 18,197$2,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,642.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…c168backed No | 31c | 17,887$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6917…84d2backed No | 6c | 16,991$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x722b…c68bbacked No | 9c | 16,870$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…75acbacked Yes | 4c | 15,719$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,155.76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +185.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…807abacked No | 0c | 15,410$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec36…de7dbacked Yes | 63c | 15,385$9,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,652.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f24…c911backed No | 3c | 15,299$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.18 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6530…92d1backed Yes | 73c | 15,248$11,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,164.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…e578backed No | 5c | 15,000$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…96c7backed No | 37c | 14,732$5,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,465.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3b…5d31backed No | 8c | 14,375$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…d02bbacked Yes | 40c | 14,151$5,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,454.75 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +8.2wins | +0.59per pick | 34cpaid | +617.6%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…5288backed Yes | 70c | 13,465$9,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,075 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 56c | 12,794$7,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,176.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf399…0129backed Yes | 79c | 12,448$9,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,643.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 28c | 12,403$3,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,990.88 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…1787backed No | 25c | 12,002$2,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,998.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c1…c1a4backed No | 4c | 11,998$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a4…9355backed No | 1c | 11,976$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15c6…d9a6backed Yes | 72c | 11,800$8,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,252 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40aa…9fe9backed Yes | 59c | 11,752$6,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,818.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…eb6bbacked Yes | 11c | 11,514$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,200.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +338.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0935…0e68backed Yes | 22c | 11,506$2,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,976.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…b187backed Yes | 79c | 11,473$9,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,371.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…5266backed Yes | 40c | 11,199$4,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,734.24 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xafa5…ae5abacked No | 7c | 11,050$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…ae38backed No | 0c | 11,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd6…84cdbacked No | 1c | 11,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…9b23backed No | 1c | 11,000$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…a760backed Yes | 79c | 10,860$8,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,230.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…6564backed Yes | 58c | 10,350$5,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,359.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6010…1182backed Yes | 37c | 10,350$3,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,471.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked No | 14c | 10,244$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x676f…91dabacked Yes | 19c | 10,214$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,270.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +425.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…69d8backed Yes | 18c | 10,165$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,378.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…06dfbacked No | 4c | 10,110$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 15c | 10,095$1,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.9 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…6fa7backed No | 6c | 10,077$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad1…2eccbacked No | 9c | 10,000$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87d…80dcbacked No | 15c | 10,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…8b9dbacked Yes | 7c | 10,000$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,310.52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf239…edc3backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d6…29f7backed Yes | 74c | 9,999$7,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,631.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…0d1abacked Yes | 53c | 9,474$4,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,476.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd2…e477backed No | 21c | 9,418$2,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked Yes | 12c | 9,263$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,189.96 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…4206backed Yes | 38c | 9,167$3,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,707.62 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes | 19c | 9,000$1,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,276.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…dbaebacked No | 15c | 9,000$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,388 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked No | 20c | 8,668$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…d483backed No | 6c | 8,621$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.54 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…1f6bbacked Yes | 21c | 8,415$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,672.06 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34e…c1cfbacked No | 5c | 8,297$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 1c | 8,231$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…0888backed Yes | 41c | 8,187$3,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,841.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…2d79backed No | 5c | 8,167$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed No | 3c | 8,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc226…d4d9backed No | 2c | 7,866$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe336…bcacbacked Yes | 50c | 7,546$3,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,788.88 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 16c | 7,380$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,185.65 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed Yes | 37c | 7,335$2,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,647.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed Yes | 29c | 7,256$2,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,142.17 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf377…f7e0backed Yes | 40c | 7,159$2,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,273.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed No | 4c | 7,100$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed No | 6c | 7,047$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lighter Airdrop on December 30?this page
- Lighter Airdrop on December 14?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 15?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 16?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 17?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 18?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 19?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 20?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 21?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 22?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 23?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 24?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 25?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 26?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 27?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 28?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 29?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 31?No won
- No airdrop in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.