Token Launches · resolved market
Lighter Airdrop on December 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3657ce0d3904e26b8f242c72f4fcd003498e662422d43c5436d668a7c8d956eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 1c | 24,955$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.73 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2a…e39ebacked Yes | 1c | 16,869$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf945…7eb1backed Yes | 0c | 7,723$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…d6e0backed Yes | 2c | 7,017$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…f642backed Yes | 1c | 6,143$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 5,441$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 0c | 5,362$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…1917backed Yes | 0c | 5,230$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…a03abacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…a0adbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,573$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed Yes | 4c | 3,066$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…53ecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,968$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4938…ce0cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,957$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0995…620dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 2c | 1,633$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,607$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…9f29backed Yes | 1c | 1,595$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,541$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…708fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,420$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6d…22a7backed Yes | 4c | 1,252$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 2c | 981.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 9c | 866.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 2c | 809.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +12.0wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc10c…d845backed Yes | 2c | 658.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6040…d6aabacked Yes | 5c | 395.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a8…c23fbacked Yes | 3c | 382.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes | 6c | 328.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d3…52b9backed Yes | 5c | 288.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x396c…4498backed Yes | 5c | 222.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd409…1e3fbacked Yes | 6c | 199.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 55c | 31.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lighter Airdrop on December 19?this page
- Lighter Airdrop on December 14?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 15?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 16?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 17?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 18?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 20?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 21?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 22?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 23?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 24?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 25?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 26?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 27?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 28?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 29?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 30?Yes won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 31?No won
- No airdrop in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.