Token Launches · resolved market
Lighter Airdrop on December 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x024cc22950ced96df3b6aad315c6df8b8b00cf17f4ebfd63e17f451b7fc7bb77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $843,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $430,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $843,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c3…1a89backed Yes | 0c | 64,666$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 0c | 60,541$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.4 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 1c | 52,888$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 2c | 29,602$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.42 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5863…656ebacked Yes | 1c | 28,235$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 26,591$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.81 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked Yes | 1c | 25,000$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.96 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…3f61backed Yes | 2c | 23,530$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked Yes | 1c | 23,180$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.68 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a2cebacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de0…78dabacked Yes | 2c | 14,378$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759f…fa36backed Yes | 0c | 13,530$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 13,517$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.01 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…f642backed Yes | 0c | 11,037$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed20…84f1backed Yes | 0c | 10,738$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,341$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d25…6e45backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 9,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f91…9951backed Yes | 0c | 8,875$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +1,624.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 7,852$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…bc74backed Yes | 3c | 7,719$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fd…03fbbacked Yes | 0c | 7,340$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 1c | 7,104$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d2…b27fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d00…cc60backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…f9d9backed Yes | 1c | 5,651$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 1c | 5,292$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,261$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed Yes | 3c | 5,086$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.71 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…a03abacked Yes | 4c | 5,002$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.27 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…7febbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…faa0backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…3505backed Yes | 0c | 4,950$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed Yes | 2c | 4,800$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd027…35b4backed Yes | 0c | 4,700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…24debacked Yes | 6c | 4,429$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…1ce8backed Yes | 1c | 4,411$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 4,340$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…e03abacked Yes | 1c | 4,187$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 8c | 4,000$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…19e1backed Yes | 1c | 3,890$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…3ba7backed Yes | 2c | 3,848$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d12…6235backed Yes | 0c | 3,840$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…ba8fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,784$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9884…e13ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bb…43dcbacked Yes | 9c | 3,375$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 3,212$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddb…51adbacked Yes | 5c | 3,181$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…3cabbacked Yes | 1c | 3,107$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +198.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,056$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…8f8abacked Yes | 3c | 2,838$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 1c | 2,743$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 2,630$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,583$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af7…ea7ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,521$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…158ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,417$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfa…de14backed Yes | 2c | 2,380$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 2c | 2,127$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…f82bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,934$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…7192backed Yes | 1c | 1,907$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69c…2a0dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,697$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd581…bd3bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,690$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 1c | 1,516$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f1…a9c7backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 1c | 1,489$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed Yes | 1c | 1,467$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2a…e39ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,388$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,270$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…1d62backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…7383backed Yes | 4c | 1,175$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d0…7528backed Yes | 9c | 1,168$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…f366backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b4…780abacked Yes | 10c | 1,038$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc05…f600backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24f8…0841backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f50…b9c8backed Yes | 4c | 999.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…8a43backed Yes | 3c | 993.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4938…ce0cbacked Yes | 4c | 899.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a5…187cbacked Yes | 3c | 894.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c1…e577backed Yes | 3c | 766.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3117…e8f6backed Yes | 1c | 762.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…05fdbacked Yes | 2c | 733$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de5…4b7bbacked Yes | 3c | 699.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc090…0cc8backed Yes | 2c | 685.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…dc51backed Yes | 7c | 671.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6471…457abacked Yes | 3c | 646.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 639.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…3795backed Yes | 3c | 632.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7a…9355backed Yes | 9c | 618.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 3c | 615.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +12.0wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…708fbacked Yes | 5c | 609.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc3…3e38backed Yes | 3c | 580.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +107%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…d31dbacked Yes | 13c | 555.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e9…7269backed Yes | 4c | 515.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ea…9e00backed Yes | 3c | 503.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…e1d4backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3692backed Yes | 4c | 499.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd409…1e3fbacked Yes | 5c | 499.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lighter Airdrop on December 26?this page
- Lighter Airdrop on December 14?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 15?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 16?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 17?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 18?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 19?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 20?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 21?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 22?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 23?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 24?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 25?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 27?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 28?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 29?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 30?Yes won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 31?No won
- No airdrop in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.