Token Launches · resolved market
Lighter Airdrop on December 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b1872ca957dd6007311df86f4b1adb67ff905e00b81b0c0b09c23396a27f8e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $224,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 1c | 50,325$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.97 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44b…c28abacked Yes | 0c | 19,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf945…7eb1backed Yes | 0c | 11,399$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…faa0backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 0c | 6,829$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 6,023$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…a03abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…8f8abacked Yes | 1c | 4,924$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4938…ce0cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,373$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c1…e577backed Yes | 0c | 3,719$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,421$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2a…e39ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,122$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,043$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9056…c143backed Yes | 1c | 2,380$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…f642backed Yes | 1c | 2,270$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 1c | 2,231$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 1,935$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,776$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 1c | 1,682$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…d66fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,678$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f1…a9c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,501$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…563abacked Yes | 1c | 1,494$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,272$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d0…7528backed Yes | 3c | 845.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8169…915bbacked Yes | 2c | 699.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848f…612fbacked Yes | 3c | 640.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f142backed Yes | 2c | 547.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6040…d6aabacked Yes | 4c | 542.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bff…0f03backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…d31dbacked Yes | 13c | 464.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd409…1e3fbacked Yes | 3c | 399.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lighter Airdrop on December 21?this page
- Lighter Airdrop on December 14?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 15?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 16?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 17?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 18?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 19?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 20?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 22?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 23?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 24?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 25?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 26?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 27?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 28?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 29?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 30?Yes won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 31?No won
- No airdrop in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.