Token Launches · resolved market
Lighter Airdrop on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87bd318666557910ca0baf1fcb342e037d1974af1e318ed93bcaeada237461e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,297,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,257,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,297,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 637 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36bd…8976backed Yes | 1c | 87,739$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…ef7bbacked Yes | 12c | 65,974$7,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,997.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf0…da21backed Yes | 11c | 55,511$5,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,935.61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x940c…b266backed Yes | 4c | 51,023$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,204.81 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…0c2abacked Yes | 5c | 49,108$2,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,251.4 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 39,153$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.22 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…ebecbacked Yes | 3c | 38,348$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.67 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 9c | 34,717$3,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,222.03 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 4c | 34,098$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.38 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 7c | 30,486$2,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,278.06 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cc…9eecbacked Yes | 10c | 30,000$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 27,880$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.09 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 26,629$3,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,022.04 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…7b9ebacked Yes | 6c | 23,950$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c7…7974backed Yes | 9c | 22,098$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,909.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 21,244$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.95 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…a634backed Yes | 15c | 20,000$2,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,990.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8a…5705backed Yes | 16c | 19,879$3,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,125.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…e578backed Yes | 8c | 19,152$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.47 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c4…0926backed Yes | 12c | 18,570$2,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,226.72 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea1d…90f0backed Yes | 14c | 18,153$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -78%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bde…6f91backed Yes | 10c | 17,000$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 6c | 16,227$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.86 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked Yes | 3c | 14,839$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.31 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 8c | 13,899$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…ad6abacked Yes | 15c | 13,537$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…8626backed Yes | 3c | 13,361$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.03 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +190.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…9562backed Yes | 10c | 13,031$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 3c | 13,002$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.21 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb01…e156backed Yes | 0c | 12,513$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…69d8backed Yes | 7c | 12,428$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1d…2751backed Yes | 12c | 12,334$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes | 1c | 12,287$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a99…a499backed Yes | 10c | 11,580$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 9c | 11,430$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.83 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…8b9dbacked Yes | 4c | 11,127$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.04 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c131backed Yes | 6c | 11,022$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.02 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 10,157$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.23 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…6fa7backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 2c | 9,138$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.04 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd973…643fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,673$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34e…c1cfbacked Yes | 3c | 8,448$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 11c | 8,351$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.94 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3b…5d31backed Yes | 3c | 8,200$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ba…4baebacked Yes | 8c | 8,020$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 13c | 7,854$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed Yes | 9c | 7,826$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.85 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…18d3backed Yes | 9c | 7,733$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 7,700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…803cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,602$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…27dcbacked Yes | 18c | 7,355$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…1f6bbacked Yes | 6c | 7,262$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.59 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 12c | 7,062$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.61 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 4c | 6,781$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.64 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0a…c1d9backed Yes | 8c | 6,679$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…75acbacked Yes | 3c | 6,634$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.9 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +185.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes | 3c | 6,229$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.01 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…00c4backed Yes | 1c | 6,132$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…75f7backed Yes | 2c | 6,053$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +323.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f7…42a9backed Yes | 5c | 6,043$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…acc7backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…8dc7backed Yes | 3c | 5,988$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -66%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 5c | 5,888$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.38 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…de6bbacked Yes | 10c | 5,794$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…8f8abacked Yes | 2c | 5,741$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 5,692$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.63 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87d…80dcbacked Yes | 6c | 5,538$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…ee87backed Yes | 2c | 5,506$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…5804backed Yes | 10c | 5,496$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…d6e0backed Yes | 6c | 5,383$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…71a4backed Yes | 13c | 5,327$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…4f56backed Yes | 2c | 5,222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +464.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 3c | 5,176$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6818…bbc7backed Yes | 4c | 5,058$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.76 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd6…8577backed Yes | 7c | 5,050$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a2cebacked Yes | 13c | 5,000$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 8c | 5,000$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.68 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bbefbacked Yes | 4c | 4,967$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…dc51backed Yes | 11c | 4,937$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.34 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…950cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,840$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe79…1903backed Yes | 4c | 4,837$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 2c | 4,776$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…705dbacked Yes | 11c | 4,661$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…01cebacked Yes | 8c | 4,526$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…c6d5backed Yes | 9c | 4,334$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 4,298$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.46 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6c…4c05backed Yes | 2c | 4,282$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…54fdbacked Yes | 10c | 4,279$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.03 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe047…e509backed Yes | 1c | 4,254$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.63 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,182$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.76 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…dbdabacked Yes | 13c | 4,047$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.53 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…b6c1backed Yes | 3c | 4,015$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…bd17backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,941$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 5c | 3,875$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 4c | 3,856$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.94 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…4ce1backed Yes | 5c | 3,833$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.89 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,765$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…952ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,700$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lighter Airdrop on December 31?this page
- Lighter Airdrop on December 14?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 15?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 16?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 17?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 18?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 19?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 20?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 21?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 22?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 23?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 24?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 25?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 26?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 27?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 28?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 29?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 30?Yes won
- No airdrop in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.