Lighter Airdrop on December 24?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07030c49f8e63869a10474655e1a453d5b19b2166ad27db17f21e6975e807572

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $447,632
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $267,198

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $447,632 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x067f…e041backed Yes	1c	102,736$1,275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,275.18	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf945…7eb1backed Yes	0c	24,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	9	0%0 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeefa…c780backed Yes	4c	12,874$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-65.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed99…92cabacked Yes	0c	12,489$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3424…20f3backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	5c	9,209$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.59	57	3.5%2 W · 55 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes	1c	9,017$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.61	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes	0c	8,500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes	1c	6,291$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.45	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dec…faa0backed Yes	2c	5,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	61c	4,852$2,962 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,890.26	14	85.7%12 W · 2 L	+3.5wins	+0.25per pick	61cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x268c…a03abacked Yes	2c	4,325$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.18	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fc…6033backed Yes	4c	3,800$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Yes	7c	3,358$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.69	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f61…e259backed Yes	40c	3,013$1,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,202.56	50	28%14 W · 36 L	-5.3wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0aa5…427abacked Yes	4c	2,554$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.22	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-4.8wins	-0.10per pick	33cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	3c	2,537$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.57	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+50%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf98c…bf06backed Yes	72c	2,276$1,632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,632.27	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,212$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.39	766	3.3%25 W · 741 L	-23.5wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	2,129$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.65	328	3%10 W · 318 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…f82bbacked Yes	5c	2,039$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes	4c	2,035$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f50…b9c8backed Yes	2c	2,000$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	4cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b65…8f8abacked Yes	2c	1,837$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	1c	1,773$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.78	76	21.1%16 W · 60 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f46…0880backed Yes	7c	1,691$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.62	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+126.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c9…1b1abacked Yes	11c	1,677$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-50%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f1…a9c7backed Yes	3c	1,589$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-2.9wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x28d5…d273backed Yes	2c	1,576$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.51	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x496c…0629backed Yes	4c	1,544$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.73	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf104…f45dbacked Yes	60c	1,483$892 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$892.17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	1,426$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.68	209	4.3%9 W · 200 L	-7.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	5c	1,340$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.82	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	-28%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7243…942abacked Yes	8c	1,300$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2336…9e65backed No	60c	1,286$767 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$519.76	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4c1…e577backed Yes	2c	1,246$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f6d…22a7backed Yes	3c	1,225$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.06	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	1,220$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.18	119	0.8%1 W · 118 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	5cpaid	-85.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5de5…4b7bbacked Yes	3c	1,181$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-85.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	3c	1,052$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.24	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc694…1171backed Yes	35c	1,039$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.94	71	23.9%17 W · 54 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaddb…51adbacked Yes	10c	1,031$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-62%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c8a…80e6backed Yes	49c	1,018$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	996.25$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.39	254	1.6%4 W · 250 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cef…f734backed Yes	3c	954.23$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.02	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77ea…9e00backed Yes	1c	900.71$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.12per pick	18cpaid	+47.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	898.08$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.46	357	12.9%46 W · 311 L	-29.9wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x87d0…7528backed Yes	9c	889.3$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.77	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes	2c	880.26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	42	7.1%3 W · 39 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+43.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63d2…c736backed Yes	5c	800$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x74e9…7269backed Yes	3c	797.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-80.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb460…041fbacked Yes	3c	731.31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed Yes	3c	718.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	+12.0wins	+0.19per pick	32cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0x7d26…a7d1backed Yes	6c	691.87$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.37	96	45.8%44 W · 52 L	+6.8wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad67…d6e0backed Yes	31c	640.36$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.01	47	23.4%11 W · 36 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	2c	627.89$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.21	60	1.7%1 W · 59 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0995…620dbacked Yes	2c	600$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0165…2281backed Yes	9c	580$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.46	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x602d…3692backed Yes	3c	577.72$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.49	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	7c	521.99$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.45	77	3.9%3 W · 74 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae0…7383backed Yes	10c	508.27$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa0…fbbdbacked No	2c	500$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.31per pick	2cpaid	+1,566.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f61…bb12backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-72%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4177…a2b4backed Yes	9c	499.98$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb2c…4b43backed Yes	7c	490.6$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.88	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b56…d31dbacked Yes	14c	473.59$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda3c…0cd4backed Yes	8c	473.19$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbdb7…94a3backed Yes	6c	463.69$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.13	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3c4…dc51backed Yes	7c	428$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.84	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa56e…d7edbacked Yes	5c	399.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	19cpaid	+250.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbaf…2833backed Yes	6c	391$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc10c…d845backed Yes	5c	363.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	3c	354.83$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	45	2.2%1 W · 44 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b85…0941backed Yes	9c	351.53$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.77	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe777…9f29backed Yes	6c	348.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.26	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes	7c	320.7$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.76	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-72%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	7c	300$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	81	27.2%22 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a9…bf67backed Yes	4c	295.85$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cea…1996backed Yes	38c	262.2$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ec…a3adbacked Yes	8c	261.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	13cpaid	+57.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f29…f142backed Yes	4c	234.77$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0b…8996backed Yes	54c	233.23$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd526…03abbacked Yes	9c	230$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	53	41.5%22 W · 31 L	+4.5wins	+0.09per pick	33cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x623a…0b32backed Yes	7c	218.1$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	+156.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb55f…5705backed Yes	7c	215$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf94…17aebacked Yes	7c	211.12$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.9wins	+0.38per pick	42cpaid	+164.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2220…9f1cbacked Yes	50c	201.69$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba2e…f687backed Yes	26c	201.34$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.06	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-64%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceed…a55cbacked Yes	11c	200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce82…5aacbacked Yes	39c	200$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.83	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9349…8d0fbacked Yes	10c	200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd409…1e3fbacked Yes	10c	199.98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d64…9190backed Yes	8c	199.97$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6040…d6aabacked Yes	10c	197.03$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8169…915bbacked Yes	6c	191.21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	+92.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…14f5backed Yes	29c	180.8$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.58	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77a5…5e47backed Yes	8c	179.4$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcba6…6435backed Yes	9c	170$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.82	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dd6…25ffbacked No	60c	167.22$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.22	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Lighter Airdrop on December 24?this page
Lighter Airdrop on December 14?No won
Lighter Airdrop on December 15?No won
Lighter Airdrop on December 16?No won
Lighter Airdrop on December 17?No won
Lighter Airdrop on December 18?No won
Lighter Airdrop on December 19?No won
Lighter Airdrop on December 20?No won
Lighter Airdrop on December 21?No won
Lighter Airdrop on December 22?No won
Lighter Airdrop on December 23?No won
Lighter Airdrop on December 25?No won
Lighter Airdrop on December 26?No won
Lighter Airdrop on December 27?No won
Lighter Airdrop on December 28?No won
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?No won
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?Yes won
Lighter Airdrop on December 31?No won
No airdrop in 2025?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lighter Airdrop on December 24?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event