Token Launches · resolved market
Lighter Airdrop on December 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd772f482db9cf94bbec70703009293c448b64f572447f6d0d6266e6e2d43bc11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $692,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $473,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $692,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 5c | 51,987$2,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,827.32 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…1a89backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 33,817$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.31 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 2c | 31,078$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…d376backed Yes | 8c | 28,218$2,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,140.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 0c | 22,442$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e50…c593backed Yes | 1c | 21,540$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a2cebacked Yes | 2c | 17,672$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.34 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5863…656ebacked Yes | 2c | 13,125$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 9,856$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b60…5c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 9,467$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.03 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 9,311$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.62 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de0…78dabacked Yes | 4c | 9,259$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,898$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed Yes | 3c | 6,752$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.57 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,922$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 5,376$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.59 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 1c | 5,350$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…a03abacked Yes | 4c | 4,984$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.6 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,605$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.76 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,587$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…0e8bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,286$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…faa0backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…19e1backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 3,893$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 2c | 3,839$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,661$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 3,406$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 3c | 3,298$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.61 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…eea1backed Yes | 4c | 3,268$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2239…ded4backed Yes | 16c | 3,142$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd5…1f45backed Yes | 7c | 2,874$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…1ce8backed Yes | 2c | 2,808$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 2,797$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46c…bbbcbacked Yes | 4c | 2,762$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed Yes | 1c | 2,569$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,483$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05bd…9d03backed Yes | 4c | 2,473$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd581…bd3bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,466$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…8f8abacked Yes | 4c | 2,426$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 1c | 2,383$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,369$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed Yes | 4c | 2,273$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa296…386cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,126$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d2…b27fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,078$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…f82bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,005$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb86…1dc5backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 1c | 1,884$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…2550backed Yes | 5c | 1,844$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…28f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,561$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7f…997abacked Yes | 1c | 1,551$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 1,523$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f1…a9c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 3c | 1,339$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…e03abacked Yes | 3c | 1,308$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…c192backed Yes | 2c | 1,257$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…158ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,154$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed Yes | 1c | 1,144$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfa…de14backed Yes | 4c | 1,136$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…7383backed Yes | 5c | 1,025$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…b37ebacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f50…b9c8backed Yes | 5c | 999.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4938…ce0cbacked Yes | 4c | 999.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…2c59backed Yes | 3c | 926.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d0…7528backed Yes | 11c | 920.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…5df9backed Yes | 1c | 857.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…fc51backed Yes | 5c | 829.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518b…cf8abacked Yes | 4c | 816.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…4ef3backed Yes | 2c | 802.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3692backed Yes | 5c | 799.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…5004backed Yes | 4c | 791.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…24debacked Yes | 5c | 759.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…0941backed Yes | 2c | 734.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…dc51backed Yes | 9c | 694.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…d31dbacked Yes | 13c | 693.62$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 667.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…7192backed Yes | 3c | 664.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e9…7269backed Yes | 5c | 652.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…8a43backed Yes | 5c | 636.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de5…4b7bbacked Yes | 6c | 632.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee7d…c596backed Yes | 4c | 628.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 4c | 615.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…2281backed Yes | 4c | 580.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…494abacked Yes | 18c | 561.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c0…52a2backed Yes | 4c | 559.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…f642backed Yes | 5c | 500.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc05…f600backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d25…6e45backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…1935backed Yes | 9c | 464.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37da…bb1ebacked Yes | 4c | 454.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…a571backed Yes | 3c | 434.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d0…b07fbacked Yes | 2c | 433.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64f…3577backed Yes | 4c | 412.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…0b32backed Yes | 5c | 412.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…94a3backed Yes | 5c | 400.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lighter Airdrop on December 27?this page
- Lighter Airdrop on December 14?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 15?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 16?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 17?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 18?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 19?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 20?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 21?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 22?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 23?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 24?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 25?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 26?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 28?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 29?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 30?Yes won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 31?No won
- No airdrop in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.