Token Launches · resolved market
Lighter Airdrop on December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68ad78706db5ea8e3714f1c8ece21dc42c537c061823ca1684fa6e10ce2c2f2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $987,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $583,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $987,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 1c | 171,970$2,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,526.71 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 46,576$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.33 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 1c | 31,858$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.69 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 2c | 30,593$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 25,316$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.26 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec5…75fdbacked Yes | 1c | 20,056$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…75acbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +185.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…fc07backed Yes | 3c | 13,731$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.34 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c3…1a89backed Yes | 1c | 13,163$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 10,927$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.19 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3efb…472bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,248$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb86…1dc5backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…8b9dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.91 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5863…656ebacked Yes | 4c | 8,229$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…2941backed Yes | 1c | 7,924$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 7,714$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.13 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de0…78dabacked Yes | 3c | 7,161$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 7,025$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…8b61backed Yes | 4c | 6,737$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd5…1f45backed Yes | 7c | 6,365$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,233$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.37 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e50…c593backed Yes | 1c | 6,064$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5236…65d1backed Yes | 1c | 5,911$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fef…0cc5backed Yes | 2c | 5,754$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x597c…b747backed Yes | 1c | 5,721$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 2c | 5,483$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.04 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…eff8backed Yes | 1c | 5,239$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…a03abacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,997$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 4,969$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.22 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 4c | 4,627$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f0…4a96backed Yes | 0c | 4,323$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed Yes | 3c | 4,273$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd89e…35fabacked Yes | 2c | 4,180$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe63…49d0backed Yes | 1c | 4,097$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad27…9a7bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 3,975$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 1c | 3,934$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…4ce1backed Yes | 1c | 3,895$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…d66fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,887$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 0c | 3,596$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…eea1backed Yes | 5c | 3,297$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd409…4a64backed Yes | 1c | 3,112$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9665…5332backed Yes | 6c | 3,095$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 1c | 3,010$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…faa0backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 4c | 2,869$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.54 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…03bebacked Yes | 1c | 2,860$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca4e…8330backed Yes | 2c | 2,736$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0159…4f56backed Yes | 1c | 2,670$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +464.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,666$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,541$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…8f8abacked Yes | 4c | 2,536$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…ba8fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,527$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 7c | 2,491$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.04 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,480$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78cc…9d4cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,471$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d2…b27fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…19e1backed Yes | 2c | 2,400$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a0…fba4backed Yes | 2c | 2,389$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 1c | 2,383$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e6…c89ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,359$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed Yes | 1c | 2,312$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d0…7528backed Yes | 9c | 2,256$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,252$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0f…c804backed Yes | 2c | 2,242$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee7…2b28backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed Yes | 5c | 2,222$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.43 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 2,185$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c0…f469backed Yes | 1c | 2,179$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe047…e509backed Yes | 2c | 2,143$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc2…4958backed Yes | 7c | 2,069$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.89 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 2,062$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…7a9dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,027$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf230…bbfbbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +402.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…0e8bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,918$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…c90dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,800$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,762$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…3183backed Yes | 1c | 1,708$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1419…a517backed Yes | 3c | 1,692$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed Yes | 1c | 1,679$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca99…d9e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,652$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed Yes | 2c | 1,502$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f1…a9c7backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…d31dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,491$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.16 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…7b02backed Yes | 2c | 1,481$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…526fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,463$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +223.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…7d4abacked Yes | 2c | 1,454$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…f82bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…743bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,418$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2283…b82abacked Yes | 3c | 1,273$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2647backed Yes | 2c | 1,233$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfa…de14backed Yes | 4c | 1,219$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…8754backed Yes | 2c | 1,202$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…14d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lighter Airdrop on December 28?this page
- Lighter Airdrop on December 14?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 15?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 16?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 17?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 18?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 19?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 20?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 21?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 22?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 23?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 24?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 25?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 26?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 27?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 29?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 30?Yes won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 31?No won
- No airdrop in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.