Token Launches · resolved market
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x464eac41fe4ee9e4317fa68b01d922d7b1e48edd3584c3ec30a87308cd6c684b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,727,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,898,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,727,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,768 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 18c | 405,504$74,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74,800.71 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 28c | 188,502$53,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,165.49 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 145,418$28,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,227.79 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 74c | 142,753$106,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,618.18 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 8c | 137,256$10,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,943.51 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…8acabacked Yes | 16c | 116,412$18,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,402.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…fad0backed Yes | 36c | 115,272$41,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,434.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6100…46aebacked Yes | 17c | 101,459$17,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,440.66 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c7…6ff2backed Yes | 1c | 100,770$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74c7…7974backed Yes | 0c | 98,051$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 16c | 96,360$15,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,674.07 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 21c | 87,864$18,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,098.23 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 0c | 85,151$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…d66fbacked Yes | 28c | 83,414$23,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,462.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…a634backed No | 35c | 77,785$26,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,847.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked Yes | 36c | 73,373$26,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,316.64 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…5288backed Yes | 14c | 73,073$10,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,286.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 13c | 66,938$8,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,514 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…73babacked Yes | 38c | 54,885$20,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,754.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 12c | 53,142$6,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,623.53 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…af0fbacked Yes | 50c | 51,509$25,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,675.58 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ce…2e38backed Yes | 11c | 50,763$5,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,583.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d6…8b36backed Yes | 0c | 49,470$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…1fe0backed Yes | 31c | 49,243$15,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,292.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…b105backed Yes | 40c | 47,041$18,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,996.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 33c | 46,437$15,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,438.16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd957…c5ffbacked Yes | 34c | 45,448$15,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,544.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes | 56c | 45,194$25,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,160.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 16c | 43,460$6,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,960.92 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb5…a27bbacked Yes | 1c | 38,603$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0402…1c95backed Yes | 69c | 36,360$24,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,929.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…80b9backed Yes | 24c | 35,314$8,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,314.39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…467bbacked No | 78c | 34,718$27,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,656.23 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…ffbbbacked Yes | 5c | 34,306$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Yes | 36c | 34,181$12,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,251.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…9e1bbacked Yes | 15c | 33,112$4,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,898.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a3…d2ccbacked Yes | 18c | 32,545$5,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +560.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 18c | 31,495$5,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,795.56 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…7b21backed Yes | 75c | 31,424$23,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,461.83 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd409…4a64backed Yes | 23c | 30,874$7,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,210.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498d…e2acbacked Yes | 0c | 30,400$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1d…90f0backed No | 76c | 30,167$22,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,266.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -78%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…65d1backed Yes | 14c | 30,000$4,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,196.52 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 26c | 30,000$7,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,699.98 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4012…a72dbacked No | 71c | 29,901$21,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,812.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130d…1ef2backed Yes | 43c | 28,814$12,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,307.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 31c | 28,743$8,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,777.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…a7e0backed Yes | 11c | 27,590$3,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,110.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40aa…9fe9backed Yes | 16c | 25,285$4,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,164.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…f408backed Yes | 21c | 25,212$5,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,355.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cb…fa31backed Yes | 4c | 25,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 1c | 24,733$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.96 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a2…1b62backed Yes | 11c | 24,550$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0d…9716backed Yes | 15c | 23,937$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,599.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…7349backed Yes | 24c | 23,615$5,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,667.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ae…0459backed Yes | 69c | 23,122$16,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce4…8431backed Yes | 71c | 23,093$16,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,471.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked No | 29c | 23,000$6,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,369.98 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe55a…445dbacked Yes | 0c | 22,873$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc4…9f8cbacked Yes | 13c | 22,743$2,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,966.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800f…3586backed No | 32c | 22,540$7,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,353.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73df…0c9abacked Yes | 68c | 21,856$14,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,969.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…7b9cbacked Yes | 14c | 21,540$2,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,966 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1419…a517backed Yes | 72c | 21,494$15,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,566.07 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…1404backed Yes | 3c | 21,471$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +307.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe270…10b5backed Yes | 9c | 21,196$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…6b54backed Yes | 14c | 21,190$2,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,934.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…ba8fbacked No | 44c | 20,787$9,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,603.48 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 17c | 20,739$3,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,455.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860c…d2fbbacked Yes | 33c | 20,573$6,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,767.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…3254backed No | 73c | 20,403$14,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,496.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8329…96c2backed Yes | 1c | 20,300$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +124.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca0…2aacbacked Yes | 10c | 20,286$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…2317backed Yes | 9c | 20,238$1,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5908…c6c3backed Yes | 8c | 20,215$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked No | 79c | 20,104$15,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,224.89 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed No | 30c | 20,000$5,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,095.24 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4189backed Yes | 22c | 20,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,399.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc21…5af6backed Yes | 4c | 19,833$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ea…3ea8backed Yes | 22c | 19,148$4,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,127.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 15c | 18,803$2,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,768.51 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…f322backed No | 57c | 18,648$10,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,932.27 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d1…2bb3backed No | 43c | 18,284$7,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,463.18 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62df…c34cbacked Yes | 36c | 17,819$6,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,347.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf535…7c3abacked Yes | 0c | 17,743$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf559…f462backed No | 43c | 17,317$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,817.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c9…1b1abacked Yes | 42c | 16,583$7,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,002.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 72c | 16,558$11,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,694.05 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 33c | 16,454$5,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,096.42 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bbefbacked Yes | 2c | 16,423$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…d02bbacked Yes | 13c | 16,321$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.3 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +8.2wins | +0.59per pick | 34cpaid | +617.6%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf445…df8abacked No | 68c | 16,055$10,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,171.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc98…74f5backed Yes | 26c | 15,797$4,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,067.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b70…3f08backed Yes | 37c | 15,736$5,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,898.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…abf8backed Yes | 13c | 15,734$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes | 27c | 15,624$4,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,231.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 53c | 15,422$8,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,130.87 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffbe…f37cbacked Yes | 34c | 15,393$5,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,233.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…526fbacked No | 21c | 15,118$3,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,888.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +223.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lighter Airdrop on December 29?this page
- Lighter Airdrop on December 14?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 15?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 16?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 17?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 18?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 19?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 20?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 21?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 22?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 23?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 24?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 25?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 26?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 27?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 28?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 30?Yes won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 31?No won
- No airdrop in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.