Token Launches · resolved market
Lighter Airdrop on December 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe540d2d758c114b59822600fa575ffca7f5c096797cca5076a969c5d17f666b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $727,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $490,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $727,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 1c | 107,713$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.82 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked Yes | 0c | 61,595$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.38 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…9413backed Yes | 0c | 56,693$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 1c | 55,633$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.68 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 1c | 49,741$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.07 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde34…37f8backed Yes | 0c | 24,965$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c5…d61cbacked Yes | 1c | 14,300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…a03abacked Yes | 2c | 9,790$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.79 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 8,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 8,060$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.16 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7c…14b0backed Yes | 1c | 4,669$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fb…20adbacked Yes | 2c | 3,933$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe149…c7ddbacked Yes | 0c | 3,831$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,821$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,722$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…74a0backed Yes | 4c | 3,532$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34a…6f87backed Yes | 3c | 3,500$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…faa0backed Yes | 5c | 3,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,348$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa296…386cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,263$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3531…4fb3backed Yes | 3c | 3,230$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7838…3b71backed Yes | 3c | 2,322$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…f9d9backed Yes | 2c | 2,173$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…7935backed Yes | 3c | 2,121$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 5c | 2,111$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…fb90backed Yes | 10c | 2,080$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd4…d343backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +288%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 1,959$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa653…444ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,923$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,918$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abe…6c5ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,632$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…8f8abacked Yes | 6c | 1,621$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…f82bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,612$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,504$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f1…a9c7backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.46 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,370$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…0941backed Yes | 8c | 1,338$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed Yes | 5c | 1,316$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +12.0wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9349…8d0fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,286$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…8a43backed Yes | 3c | 1,073$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfa…de14backed Yes | 3c | 1,065$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,030$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…6033backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 3c | 999.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f50…b9c8backed Yes | 4c | 999.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 3c | 939.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 5c | 899.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…0e63backed Yes | 3c | 899.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6e…2be1backed Yes | 1c | 878.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 4c | 860$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…d31dbacked Yes | 12c | 837.44$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddb…51adbacked Yes | 12c | 800.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc05…f600backed Yes | 2c | 749.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda3c…0cd4backed Yes | 5c | 694.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e9…7269backed Yes | 3c | 683.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 11c | 646.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c1…e577backed Yes | 3c | 645.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de5…4b7bbacked Yes | 3c | 626.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a5…187cbacked Yes | 3c | 604.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0995…620dbacked Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…70f9backed Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc3…3e38backed Yes | 4c | 550.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +107%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 5c | 549.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…9f29backed Yes | 4c | 545$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ea…9e00backed Yes | 3c | 511.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3692backed Yes | 3c | 499.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…7383backed Yes | 10c | 469.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…26adbacked Yes | 4c | 466.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…0b32backed Yes | 4c | 456.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Yes | 2c | 434.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…bf67backed Yes | 3c | 390.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45bf…9563backed Yes | 8c | 362.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…a10dbacked Yes | 4c | 361.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…d6e0backed Yes | 11c | 356.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c87…1439backed Yes | 10c | 345.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc47d…feeebacked Yes | 4c | 344.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…1f6bbacked Yes | 5c | 326.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd409…1e3fbacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…9190backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e95…c068backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8169…915bbacked Yes | 4c | 293.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec7…2762backed Yes | 8c | 255.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…1917backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7856…f22fbacked Yes | 10c | 247.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Yes | 4c | 243.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed Yes | 7c | 210.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5300…0625backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…e1d4backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 8c | 168.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 167$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaecc…eb20backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2701…0679backed Yes | 7c | 147.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a5…5e47backed Yes | 10c | 145.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…a45dbacked Yes | 8c | 145$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lighter Airdrop on December 25?this page
- Lighter Airdrop on December 14?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 15?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 16?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 17?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 18?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 19?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 20?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 21?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 22?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 23?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 24?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 26?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 27?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 28?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 29?No won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 30?Yes won
- Lighter Airdrop on December 31?No won
- No airdrop in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.