TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc120…7935

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
84
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Boxing, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 54 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST4533.3%15 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Nuggetsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$243.82
Lakers vs. Warriorsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+63.9%+$127.64
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$940Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$940
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$110.21
Lakers vs. Clippersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$899Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$898.8
Mavericks vs. 76ersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$390
Pacers vs. Pelicansbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$22.23
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$177.51
Bulls vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Rockets vs. Pelicansbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Kings vs. Trail Blazersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$67
Lakers vs. Jazzbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$362Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+87.6%+$317.36
Magic vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+92.3%+$186.8
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$560
Hawks vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+88.7%+$212.83
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$541Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$540.6
Grizzlies vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$260.43
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$261Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+146%+$381.76
Mavericks vs. Jazzbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$194.56
Pistons vs. Celticsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+105.7%+$190.24
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+121.6%+$559.58
76ers vs. Hawksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$148.71
Wizards vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$121.03
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+449.6%+$1,101.61
Knicks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$180
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST1729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Steelers vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$116.73
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,515Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+132.1%+$2,001.68
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$700
Dolphins vs. Steelersbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$219.98
Vikings vs. Cowboysbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+316.7%+$63.33
Lions vs. Ramsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$65
Packers vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+136.7%+$116.57
Colts vs. Seahawksbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$130
Bills vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Falcons vs. Buccaneersbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+386.6%+$1,391.73
Eagles vs. Chargersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Texans vs. Chiefsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+203%+$404.92
Bears vs. Packersbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$307Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$307.03
Bengals vs. Billsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Colts vs. Jaguarsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$140.7
Saints vs. Buccaneersbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Cowboys vs. Lionsbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$19.98
All 17 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Islanders vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+88.7%+$58.97
Panthers vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Capitals vs. Jetsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Red Wings vs. Oilersbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$113
Sharks vs. Hurricanesbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+257.1%+$77.14
All 5 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ohio State vs. Indianabacked Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+176.8%+$212.12
Georgia vs. Alabamabacked Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$60
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Lighter Airdrop on December 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$70
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+163.6%+$359.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sydney Sweeney be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$32.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$114.77
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.