TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Suns

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lakersof Lakers, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,956,768
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,161,824

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,956,768 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,070 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe60a…6a47backed Lakers52c118,333$61,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,788.082,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lakers50c91,984$46,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,920.654,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf963…0637backed Suns51c74,166$37,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,576.644742.6%20 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Suns52c63,460$32,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,999.349641.7%40 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd43c…04e8backed Suns50c62,000$31,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,00011535.7%41 W · 74 L-12.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Suns54c61,639$33,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,276.665,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Lakers55c59,520$32,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,020.3676746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Suns15c55,521$8,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,315.241,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Lakers49c53,792$26,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,291.8421450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Suns52c53,792$27,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,829.7617861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Suns46c53,184$24,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,431.0327251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9dd…3cc5backed Lakers46c50,098$22,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,121.132744.4%12 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+64.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Lakers50c44,508$22,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,271.4325945.6%118 W · 141 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Suns31c42,927$13,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,112.4381529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ed8…0130backed Lakers49c38,890$19,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,884.361560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Lakers54c37,241$19,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,276.3134062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Suns51c36,281$18,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,460.444,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9615…60ddbacked Lakers47c35,000$16,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,399.9914853.4%79 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Lakers45c33,393$14,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,398.0916846.4%78 W · 90 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Suns28c32,213$9,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,130.572,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Suns42c30,639$12,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,868.3713455.2%74 W · 60 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Suns51c25,698$13,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,158.881,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Suns12c24,078$2,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,818.421,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Suns1c24,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24029810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Suns34c22,373$7,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,565.828,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Suns4c22,034$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.1364517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Suns46c20,434$9,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,348.391,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Lakers50c20,196$10,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,10031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Suns26c20,147$5,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,227.421,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Suns51c20,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,2001,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Suns50c20,000$10,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,10018045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Lakers48c19,886$9,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,303.5536741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Suns53c18,868$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00021944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Suns43c17,636$7,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,507.1174748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf6…1395backed Suns50c17,105$8,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,5005054%27 W · 23 L+8.4wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+30.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Suns50c16,970$8,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,444.012,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Suns45c16,371$7,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,431.2148944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Suns48c16,111$7,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,687.1418518.4%34 W · 151 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns50c15,941$7,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,963.433,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Suns29c15,696$4,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,547.983,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Suns54c15,692$8,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,539.8918453.3%98 W · 86 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Suns7c15,560$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.3339744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Lakers52c15,378$7,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,381.6624831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Suns49c15,084$7,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,342.714,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Suns53c14,757$7,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,820.9592753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Suns43c14,432$6,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,274.871,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Suns51c14,376$7,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,284.163,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b40…d85ebacked Suns3c14,343$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.015832.8%19 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb433…7705backed Suns19c13,662$2,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,541.183036.7%11 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Suns52c12,677$6,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,598.8915443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Lakers55c12,574$6,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,658.4937539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x708d…8a09backed Suns4c11,646$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.3621923.7%52 W · 167 L+0.5wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Lakers78c10,306$7,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,308.5891050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Suns20c10,090$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00025925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Lakers51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9004035%14 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Suns51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.9817658%102 W · 74 L+13.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x54fd…ae61backed Suns50c9,902$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0001650%8 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Lakers53c9,695$5,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,565.4747043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Suns50c9,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50035547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd78d…60bebacked Suns2c8,814$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.0725016.8%42 W · 208 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Lakers45c8,732$3,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,800.7329037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5a6f…a51fbacked Suns49c8,163$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Lakers48c8,124$3,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,194.3885742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x681d…08aabacked Suns50c7,899$3,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,953.915052%26 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1313…85d8backed Lakers51c7,800$3,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,816742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0999…016ebacked Suns1c7,535$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3513850%69 W · 69 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Suns51c7,500$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,85082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed6…e517backed Suns48c7,292$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5001855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Lakers67c6,968$4,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,305.8248046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Suns44c6,337$2,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,764.141,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Lakers50c6,330$3,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,159.244648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa45d…b413backed Lakers55c6,288$3,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,835.4211653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Suns52c6,093$3,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,174.4616848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Suns50c6,000$3,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,016.6339349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Suns1c5,923$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.618820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d5…e2c1backed Lakers58c5,743$3,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,389.32666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+8.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Suns50c5,343$2,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,670.172,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2838…fdd3backed Lakers73c5,317$3,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431.694247.6%20 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Suns20c5,295$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.1372241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Suns3c5,212$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.241,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42f1…bebdbacked Lakers48c5,153$2,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,654.954443.2%19 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Lakers46c5,119$2,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,782.677149.3%35 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed Lakers49c5,061$2,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,603.5634852.3%182 W · 166 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd178…6703backed Lakers50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5003154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Lakers44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80010837%40 W · 68 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Suns52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.9930947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lakers52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.971,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eba…33bdbacked Lakers50c4,974$2,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,509.134643.5%20 W · 26 L-6.5wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Lakers52c4,903$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,353.58846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Lakers62c4,872$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,872.379852%51 W · 47 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Suns48c4,862$2,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,337.216,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c28…7ba5backed Suns48c4,800$2,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30413148.9%64 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Lakers51c4,800$2,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,35214945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Suns50c4,731$2,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.261,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Suns51c4,605$2,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,348.5962351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Suns43c4,598$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0007745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Suns46c4,500$2,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,075.5962347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5061…1b03backed Lakers40c4,490$1,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,694.0516540%66 W · 99 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Lakers52c4,445$2,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,133.7119958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Suns48c4,444$2,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,133.176850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.