NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67c7dafcfb523e4ba4e784d21b4a126d6175b58ccd6f28d066a9d2e52688412f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Lakers, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Lakers | 43c | 11,728$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 58c | 8,439$4,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,585.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Suns | 57c | 1,837$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.17 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Suns | 61c | 1,652$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.32 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 3c | 847$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.59 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Suns | 74c | 700$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Lakers | 26c | 700$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Suns | 56c | 450.18$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.18 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Lakers | 37c | 368.73$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.43 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lakers | 44c | 345.18$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.88 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Suns | 57c | 277.95$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.3 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Lakers | 42c | 237.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Lakers | 44c | 229.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f0…79c3backed Lakers | 44c | 220.57$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Lakers | 51c | 203.85$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Suns | 56c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Suns | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46df…b057backed Suns | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 211 | 64.5%136 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 57c | 106.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…fbfabacked Suns | 63c | 105$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Suns | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Lakers | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Suns | 50c | 75.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Lakers | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc317…4f97backed Suns | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae6…f672backed Lakers | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Suns | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Lakers | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)this page
- Lakers vs. SunsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Suns: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Suns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.