NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38ae71a664f06dcc46d10d161f814ce94226fbb3f22f8d49cb11b4b944489944
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 73c | 5,589$4,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,088.41 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 56c | 2,591$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 2,548$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Under | 73c | 500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…499ebacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 440 | 40.5%178 W · 262 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed Under | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 7cpaid | +190.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 3c | 347.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 38c | 330$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.1 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 29c | 300.17$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.73 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 62c | 207$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Under | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa14…f533backed Over | 62c | 140$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 45c | 136.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…296abacked Over | 50c | 101.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 65cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…8db6backed Under | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…f543backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f32…97c2backed Over | 59c | 70.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 36c | 60.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…af12backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 55c | 47.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9f…c2a6backed Over | 65c | 46.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…dfa7backed Under | 47c | 40.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Under | 46c | 40.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…e727backed Under | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 183 | 47.5%87 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…d493backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 226.5this page
- Lakers vs. SunsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Suns: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Suns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.