TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Pelicans

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pelicansof Pacers, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,265,069
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,369,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,265,069 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 601 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd9b…414dbacked Pacers42c171,465$72,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,070.3951844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Pacers45c163,612$72,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,953.5525248.4%122 W · 130 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Pelicans58c114,164$65,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,340.4320055%110 W · 90 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Pelicans57c60,000$34,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,799.9617250.6%87 W · 85 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Pelicans78c57,463$44,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,798.387869.2%54 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb915…8da5backed Pelicans59c50,131$29,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,553.5810459.6%62 W · 42 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers19c44,687$8,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,422.454,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Pelicans58c30,000$17,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,60038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Pelicans57c30,000$17,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,90066853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Pacers39c25,365$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0007745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Pelicans56c25,000$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,999.9314052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Pacers42c21,598$9,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,071.311,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Pacers43c21,000$9,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,03038434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc946…1825backed Pacers43c20,270$8,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,716.15259.6%31 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Pelicans56c18,830$10,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,295.112,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Pelicans56c18,289$10,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,000.611,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Pacers18c17,196$3,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,162.581,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans73c15,340$11,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,087.165,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Pacers44c15,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,60018045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Pelicans75c13,977$10,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,433.6118453.3%98 W · 86 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Pacers17c13,643$2,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,291.7134062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Pacers20c12,618$2,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,571.781,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed Pelicans56c12,000$6,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2803063.3%19 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Pelicans56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,40014244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Pelicans56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4001,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pelicans55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pacers31c9,806$3,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,009.258,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dae…4688backed Pacers43c9,235$3,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9454961.2%30 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Pacers23c8,487$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960.2627917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Pelicans56c7,560$4,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,332.452,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pacers42c7,500$3,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,142.599,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pacers1c7,443$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.528820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Pelicans75c7,394$5,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.333,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Pelicans57c7,091$4,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,049.1247751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Pacers0c6,391$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.221,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Pelicans56c6,380$3,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,807.272450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked Pacers43c6,148$2,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,643.733151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pacers40c6,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4004,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e8…731cbacked Pacers43c5,798$2,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,493.347255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pacers42c5,443$2,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,282.263,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pacers20c5,325$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.162,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Pelicans57c5,263$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,263.1631044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Pacers4c5,110$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.981,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Pacers17c5,019$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.4885344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x062a…c2a3backed Pelicans56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20019048.4%92 W · 98 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd1d…2190backed Pacers43c4,651$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedb1…819ebacked Pelicans58c4,598$2,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,931.2815855.7%88 W · 70 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a8e…6dd0backed Pacers3c4,516$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.72240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Pacers1c4,417$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.835213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x708d…8a09backed Pacers24c4,200$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00821923.7%52 W · 167 L+0.5wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Pacers44c4,100$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7841,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Pacers43c4,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7208343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Pacers0c4,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.257502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Pelicans56c4,000$2,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,765.11,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Pelicans79c3,747$2,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.565072%36 W · 14 L+8.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0500…6158backed Pacers43c3,730$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60412151.2%62 W · 59 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Pacers1c3,660$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.17211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Pelicans59c3,527$2,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,457.8148944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Pacers17c3,068$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.4181529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pacers19c3,065$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.845,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Pelicans58c3,014$1,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,280.7244459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed Pacers44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3206352.4%33 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Pelicans55c3,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.9943051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc0…a8a0backed Pacers3c2,955$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-35.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Pacers45c2,953$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.491,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Pelicans79c2,758$2,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.2448046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…cab1backed Pelicans56c2,633$1,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.472347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Pelicans68c2,595$1,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.8573649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed Pelicans57c2,570$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.4811649.1%57 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Pelicans79c2,538$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.1621455.1%118 W · 96 L-1.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Pelicans56c2,500$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10044648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Pacers40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00033150.8%168 W · 163 L+1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Pelicans56c2,500$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1001,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a22…c3b5backed Pacers30c2,384$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.316130.4%49 W · 112 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Pacers44c2,267$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.2930947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans55c2,244$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.632,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Pacers1c2,157$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.571,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Pacers44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8804245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Pacers43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86049142.6%209 W · 282 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Pacers43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Pelicans55c1,988$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.6514549%71 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Pacers11c1,913$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9234227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf967…8cd4backed Pacers43c1,900$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8179042.2%38 W · 52 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2eff…8f18backed Pacers44c1,777$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+61.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aba…b7c8backed Pelicans57c1,776$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Pelicans57c1,763$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.3311654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8d3…0140backed Pacers41c1,707$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ef…ce17backed Pelicans60c1,707$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.89100%9 W · 0 L+4.0wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+103.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Pelicans55c1,685$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.251,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb4…48e3backed Pacers15c1,652$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25015547.1%73 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Pelicans55c1,617$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.5416749.1%82 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3657…6cd3backed Pacers42c1,615$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.519256.5%52 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb65c…dcdfbacked Pacers43c1,593$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68510149.5%50 W · 51 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-14.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x573b…2c2abacked Pacers45c1,530$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.51154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Pacers43c1,500$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64578445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0b5…316bbacked Pacers20c1,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002934.5%10 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick22cpaid+49.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Pelicans58c1,500$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.9947043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e79…9deebacked Pelicans59c1,500$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.971540%6 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbda3…cab2backed Pacers44c1,412$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.28520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Pelicans75c1,382$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.3212239.3%48 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.