NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb465c1c3f94ff680976a954844fbfd31beef7bdee3478ddf9f8392597f86361e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Pelicans, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd092…342abacked Pacers | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Pacers | 51c | 1,683$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.55 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 47c | 1,391$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.5 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…c4acbacked Pacers | 55c | 763.64$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Pelicans | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Pelicans | 45c | 600$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Pelicans | 45c | 561.72$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.95 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Pelicans | 46c | 381.66$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.1 | 241 | 47.3%114 W · 127 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…d951backed Pelicans | 45c | 244.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Pelicans | 51c | 242.5$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.82 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Pacers | 54c | 239.13$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.13 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Pelicans | 48c | 219.43$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe490…8e6cbacked Pelicans | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Pacers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Pacers | 9c | 191$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Pacers | 49c | 164.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Pelicans | 45c | 139$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pacers | 55c | 114.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377e…a010backed Pacers | 54c | 109.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 48c | 106.87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Pacers | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Pelicans | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Pacers | 54c | 87.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Pelicans | 48c | 85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Pelicans | 46c | 70.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Pacers | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Pacers | 56c | 53.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans | 50c | 42.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Pelicans | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Pelicans | 46c | 40.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Pacers | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Pacers | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pelicans | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans | 50c | 33.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Pacers | 52c | 32.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Pelicans | 52c | 23.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pacers | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Pelicans | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)this page
- Pacers vs. PelicansPelicans won
- Pacers vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Pacers vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Pelicans: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Pelicans (-1.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.