Boxing · resolved market
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x318fdeaa47873399bfca233a2158a83bb4543824e7ac8cb0fc5768eaff5bc219
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f9b…0029backed No | 51c | 8,500$4,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,374.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Yes | 49c | 8,109$3,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,170.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 49c | 1,324$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed No | 9c | 1,300$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…64f9backed Yes | 77c | 1,298$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…504fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,045$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 55c | 1,007$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…7935backed Yes | 49c | 841.33$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 10c | 747.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked No | 44c | 574.23$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 41c | 547.35$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…1fe3backed Yes | 49c | 406.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked No | 60c | 318$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…3046backed Yes | 50c | 237.88$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.36per pick | 48cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…d516backed No | 49c | 215.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Yes | 47c | 213.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe4…52b8backed Yes | 47c | 212.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.68 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd8…e1fbbacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +98%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed No | 32c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed No | 50c | 63.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed No | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…d4e3backed Yes | 49c | 40.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5da…5c84backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb1…c6f2backed No | 60c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699e…55bcbacked No | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked Yes | 47c | 23.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…8806backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ac…6b0dbacked No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 5?this page
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Go the Distance?No won
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 2?Yes won
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 3?Yes won
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 4?Yes won
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 6?Yes won
- Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.